Recently released market study: Serbia Retail Report Q3 2010

June 17, 2010 - PRLog -- The Q310 BMI Serbia Retail report forecasts that the country's retail sales will grow by 43.4%, from a predicted RSD1,197bn (US$18.05bn) in 2010 to RSD1,717bn (US$28.07bn), by 2014. Underlying economic growth, rising disposable incomes and the development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Serbian retail sales.

Serbia's nominal GDP is expected to be US$40.45bn in 2010, with annual growth of just 1.0% expected following 2009's 2.9% decrease. Average annual GDP growth of 3.8% is forecast by BMI between 2010 and 2014. Although the population is falling slightly, from 7.4mn to 7.3mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by nearly 44% over the forecast period, reaching US$7,913.

Serbia is one of the poorest markets in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), plagued by political uncertainty and high unemployment that deter foreign investment. Low levels of disposable income, the prevalence of corruption and the poor state of infrastructure make this a challenging market. However, the medium-to-long-term potential is significant, particularly if Serbia can achieve EU accession.

In 2005, almost 67% of the Serbian population was described by the UN as economically active, with just under 51% in the 20-44 age range, which is crucial for retail sales. Just over half of the population, 52.3%, was classified by the UN as urban. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have risen to 53.8%, but with 48.1% in the 20-44 age range. By this time, 66.8% of the population is expected to be economically active.

The Serbian retail sector is still underserved and fragmented compared to more mature markets, with only 25m2 of retail space per 1,000 inhabitants, compared with the EU average of 270m2. However, the increasing development of organised retail infrastructure will result in retail sub-sectors such as over-thecounter (OTC) pharmaceuticals and consumer electronics growing substantially over the forecast period.

Sales of OTC pharmaceutical products are predicted by BMI to increase from US$0.13bn in 2010 to US$0.17bn before the end of the forecast period, a rise of over 32%. The consumer electronics sector is forecast to grow by nearly 51%, from US$1.21bn in 2010 to US$1.83bn by 2014.

Retail sales for the BMI universe of CEE countries in 2010 amount to a forecast US$1,184bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI's macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,032bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together are predicted to account for an estimated 80% of regional retail sales in 2010, which we forecast to remain steady through to 2014. For Serbia, the predicted 2010 market share of 1.7% is expected to increase to 2.0% by 2014.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/67718_serbia_retail_report_q3_...

Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Serbia Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Serbia Political SWOT
- Serbia Economic SWOT
Business Environment Ratings
- Central And Eastern Europe Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Table: CEE Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Serbia's Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
- Table: Retail Sales By Key Segment, 2010f
- Organised Retail
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Serbia - Economic Activity, 2007-2014
- Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Regional Retail Trends, 2007-2014
- Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share, 2007-2014
- Regional Retail Trends
Mass Grocery Retail
- Serbia Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Serbia MGR Sales By Format, 2007-2014
- Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2009 And 2019 (% of total)
- Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
- Serbia Consumer Electronics SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2006-2014 (US$mn)
- Industry Developments
Automotives
- Serbia Autos Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Newly Registered Road Vehicles And Trailers, Q407 And Q408
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Serbia Autos - Production And Sales, 2007-2014
- Trade
- Table: Serbia Autos - Exports And Imports, 2005-2014
Country Snapshot: Serbia Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2000/01
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources

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