Market Report, "Russia Petrochemicals Report Q3 2010", published

June 9, 2010 - PRLog -- Russian petrochemicals producers are increasingly looking towards export markets for growth, but BMI's latest 'Russia Petrochemicals Report' forecasts that the industry's recovery will continue to rely on domestic demand, which will be slow to pick up pace.

Government stimulus measures will start to rescue the petrochemicals sector in 2010, following a year of deep recession. Nevertheless, economic activity in Russia will remain well below levels in previous years. The chemical industry will follow the overall economic trend with output is likely to rise by around 3.7% in 2010 from a contraction of 11.0% in 2009. One key factor holding back the petrochemicals sector is lagging domestic demand, with the feed-through effects from the bounce in the oil export sector to domestic demand taking time to have an effect. Nevertheless, private consumption set to take an increasingly important role in the economy and the domestic market for petrochemicals end-products will return to buoyancy in the medium term. Moreover, problems of lacklustre Asian demand and weakening competitiveness due to the expected appreciation of the rouble will be compounded by the increase of substantial new low-cost capacity currently coming onstream in Asia and the Middle East.

In recognition of the fact that the petrochemicals sector will need to move away from dependence on domestic demand, Russian producers are planning to establish more export-oriented facilities. For example, JSC Alco-Naphtha is also constructing a 240,000tpa PET facility in the Kaliningrad exclave with 60% of the output exported. Sibur is also studying the construction of a large-scale petrochemicals complex, possibly in Vladivostok and exporting much of its production to the Chinese market. This would require new pipelines from Western Siberia to transport feedstock to cracker facilities.

Meanwhile, NKNK, in recognition of the growing importance of external markets, announced in April 2010 that it would postpone an olefins-polyolefins complex in Tatarstan, costing EUR2.1bn, in favour of a synthetic rubber expansion plan. It had planned to raise its current ethylene capacity of 600,000tpa to 1.2mn tpa to boost polymer output by 2012. NKNH said it is postponing the ethylene complex project for 18 months due to the changing situation in global financial markets. Meanwhile, in response to the financial crisis and economic downturn, Sibur cancelled plans to build a cracker and PE units at Orenburg. Meanwhile, Sibur has stated that a planned olefins and derivatives complex at Salayat, including ethylene, propylene, PE, PP, ethylene glycol, benzene and butadiene facilities, would not come onstream until around 2015.

In April 2010, Lukoil announced it had put back the planned launch of a EUR2.6bn gas-based chemicals project and expansion of its existing cracker at Budyennovsk in southern Russian from 2013 to 2016 or 2017. The principal reason was the effect of the recession. The new chemical complex would source the Caspian natural gas for production at a new 600,000tpa PE plant. Bashkortostan-based Salavatnefteorgsintez has also postponed its plan for a 120,000tpa HDPE plant, originally scheduled for 2006 and missing its end-2009 deadline.

Russia's commanding position in our petrochemicals rankings for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is being eroded by a poor country risk profile, leading to a 1.1 point drop in its score to 58.5 points this quarter. Despite holding around one-third of the combined polymer production capacity of the 10 countries surveyed, and providing the large bulk of regional cracker capacity expansion in the next five years, Russia lags behind EU members in terms of the structure of the economy, and has an average market risk score and is just 0.8 points ahead of Poland. The main weakness for investment in the petrochemicals sector is the absence of an industrial policy and a legislative framework aimed at overhauling the chemicals sector. There is also a lack of foreign investment and its associated operational and management expertise, which could limit the prospects for growth.

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Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Russia Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry SWOT
- Russia Political SWOT
- Russia Economic SWOT
- Russia Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
- Petrochemicals Market Overview
- Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2009 And 2014 ('000 tonnes capacity)
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q409-Q410 (US$/bbl)
- Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2007-2014 (US$/bbl)
European Overview
- Regulation
- Table: Key Elements Of REACH
- Production
Russia Market Overview
- Petrochemicals Trade
- Market Structure
- Table: Russia's Cracker Capacity, 2009-2015 ('000 tpa)
- Foreign Investment
Business Environment
- Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings
- Russia's Foreign Investment Policy
- Foreign Trade Regime
- Tariffs/Non-Tariff Barriers
- Tax Regime
Industry Trends And Developments
- Upstream
- Olefins And Aromatics
- Polymers
- Financial Results And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Russia's Petrochemicals Sector, 2007-2014
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Russia - Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Company Monitor
- Lukoil
- Nizhnekamskneftekhim (NKNK)
- Salavatnefteorgsintez
- Sibur Holding
- Table: Sibur's Output, 2005 And 2006 ('000 tonnes, unless otherwise stated)
Country Snapshot: Russia Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
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