Although BMI does not expect such levels of growth for the new financial year, as the reduction on tariffs is rolled back and vehicle prices increase, we still expect India to offer plenty of growth potential to carmakers. Over the next five years we forecast average annual growth in four-wheel vehicle sales of 11%, with average passenger car sales growth of 10.5%. One upcoming area of growth, however, appears to be the premium motorcycle segment, highlighted by the entry of US iconic brand Harley- Davidson. BMI believes a shift in focus towards the premium end of the spectrum will ensure average annual sales growth of around 9% in India's motorcycle segment over the next five years.
India stays in sixth in BMI's Business Environment Ratings for the autos sector in Asia Pacific with a score of 55.4, as a lower country structure rating drags on the limits to potential returns category. India shares the same pros and cons as China, ranking highly in terms of high production and sales growth potential, but with a low score for country structure (again caused by a large gap between wealthy urban and poorer rural areas), which acts as a restriction on future penetration rates. However, the country's regulatory environment rating is bolstered by the government's efforts to encourage 'green' motoring, as well as a number of free trade agreements which are supporting the country's bid to become a regional export hub.
Most of the major brands have or plan to have small cars available in India, both for local and export sale, and those that have launched new models recently are already reaping the benefits. Ford Motor, which launched its Figo in March, saw its sales for the month rise by 203% y-o-y. Rival General Motors Company posted growth of 127% y-o-y in March after the launch of its Beat small car and Cruze compact sedan. When Volkswagen India launched its Polo small car in February, its marketing manager, Lutz Kothe, said he expected the model to be a game changer for the company.
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Report Table of Contents:
CONTENTS
Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- India Auto Industry SWOT
- India Political SWOT
- India Economic SWOT
- India Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Rankings
- Table: Business Environment Ratings -- Autos Industry Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific Regional Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Production and Sales
- Table: India Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Trade
- Table: India Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Economic Contribution
- Table: India Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
- Table: India - GDP Contribution to Growth
Competitive Landscape
- Market Overview
- Manufacturers - Passenger Cars
- Table: India - Top Brands By Domestic Passenger Vehicle Sales (CBUs)
- Alternative Fuel
- Premium Segment
- Commercial Segment
- Table: India - Commercial Vehicle Sales (CBUs)
- Commercial Vehicle Segment Developments
- Motorcycles
- Suppliers
Company Monitor
- Geely Strategy Supports BMI View
- Table: South Korea - Imported Luxury Vehicle Sales
Company Profile
- Hyundai
- Maruti Suzuki
- Tata Motors
- Mahindra and Mahindra
- Bajaj Auto
Country Snapshot: India Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 1996-2001
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources
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