BMI's Q310 update of the Sudan Telecommunications Report includes the latest operational and financial data published by the leading network operators, These have brought our market figures up to the end of 2009, which in turn feed into our forecasts. However, since end-of-year figures were basically in line with BMI's expectations, there have been few alterations to any of our forecast figures.
BMI believes that there were 17.745mn mobile subscribers in Sudan at the end of 2009. This is only very slightly above our previous forecast estimate of 17.737 - a difference of only 0.05% No new data has emerged about the fixed-line or broadband markets, but BMI maintains the position that there were 424,000 fixed-line and 87,000 broadband subscribers at the end of 2009, taking penetration rates to 1.0% and 0.2% respectively.
With mobile subscriptions at 17.745, that takes mobile penetration to 39.6%. There is still massive scope for growth in Sudan, but the market faces many challenges. It is generally acknowledged that the more urbanised and densely populated areas around Khartoum are already highly penetrated and competitive. Further growth comes from elsewhere, where infrastructure is poor, and people have extremely limited means to spend on telecoms services. Populations are generally spread out. With instability in Darfur still a massive problem, and tension in the South periodically flaring up, there are also security concerns. All these things can limited the pace at which further growth proceeds.
Sudan has moved up in our Business Environment Ratings this quarter, mostly due to the strong growth seen in the second half of 2009. However, it is still only 15th out of 22 countries. Sudan is very much pulled down by its low Country Risk score. This is affected by conflict and security concerns, but also highlights the potential problems on the horizon with the referendum over the cessation of the South. If and when this takes place, the legal status of the networks there will become rather uncertain. No dramatic changes or removal of regional licences are expected, but certainly it poses some serious questions.
Although Sudan has an extremely low broadband penetration rate, more than 10% of the population are thought to be regular internet users; this figure is high by regional standards. Furthermore, recent months have seen some interesting developments that should have a positive impact on long-term growth. Firstly, in March 2009, it was reported that WiMAX ISP Jet Net had teamed up with Jordan's Neu Group to launch a WiMAX voice and data service in Sudan. Initially targeting Khartoum and Port Sudan, the operator plans to invest between US$20-30mn in the first phase of its network expansion: investment will initially come from the Neu Group, but as it expands, it wants to diversify its sources of finance. The company will use equipment provided by China's Huawei Technologies.
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Partial Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Sudan Mobile SWOT
- Sudan Fixed-Line And Broadband SWOT
- Sudan Political SWOT
- Sudan Economic SWOT
- Sudan Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment
- Sub-Saharan Africa
- Sudan
- Table: Regional Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Mobile
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Fixed Line
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Internet
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Broadband And Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
- Mobile
- Table: Sudan Mobile Market Q409
- Table: Sudan Mobile Market Net Additions Q409
- 3G
- Value-Added Services
- Regional Outlook
- Country Outlook
- Table: VAS Developments
- Mobile Operator Data
- Sudan Mobile Market Overview
- Zain (formerly Celtel)
- Table: MTN
- Fixed Line
- Internet
- Table: Wireline Developments
Telecoms Regulatory Environment Table
- Sudan: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
- Competition
- Licensing
- Industry Developments
Competitive Landscape
- Key Players
- Table: Key Players - Sudan Telecoms Sector
- Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators (US$mn)
- Company Monitor
- Huawei: Wireless And Fibre deployments Define Regional Growth While Huawei Expands Research And Training Commitments
- Table: Huawei Financial Highlights
- Table: Huawei - Recent Contract Wins and Other Developments in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Table: Huawei - Recent Contract Wins And Other Developments In North Africa And The Middle East
- Profiles
- Zain Sudan
- Sudatel
Appendix:
- Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
- Fixed Line
- Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
- Mobile
- Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
- Internet
- Table: Regional Internet Penetration Overview
Glossary Of Terms
- Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
- Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
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