Pharmaceutical spending in Kenya is expected to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.69% in local currency terms and 20.60% in US dollar terms, highlighting the opportunities that the emerging market can provide to multinational drugmakers. During 2009, pharmaceutical sales in Kenya reached a value of KES27.12bn, representing a growth of 15.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in local currency terms. However, as a result of the weakening Kenyan shilling, drug market growth in US dollar terms remained comparatively low (4.3% y-o-y) and reached a value of US$352mn. BMI calculates that in 2010, the country's drug market will experience double-digit growth in local currency terms as well as US dollar terms as a result of a more favourable exchange rate. BMI believes that the Kenyan drug market will reach a value of KES56.20bn (US$898mn) by 2014 and KES95.44bn (US$1.67bn) by 2019.
Despite the attractions of the fast-growing drug market, a sizeable counterfeiting industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory environment deficiencies and a number of other issues hold Kenya in a low position in BMI's Middle East and Africa Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings. Nevertheless, in comparison with many other African markets, most of which are not surveyed by BMI, Kenya offers more commercial promise and a more stable overall business environment.
Biopharmaceutical services company Quintiles opened an office in Nairobi in March 2010, facilitating its capacity to monitor the growing number of clinical studies being conducted throughout East Africa and enhancing the company's capability to provide clinical research services across the continent. We believe that choosing Kenya as its East African base is a significant indication of the country's merits in comparison to its neighbours. The population is increasingly aware of the importance of access to healthcare and will be more likely to respond to recruitment drives for clinical trials. Furthermore, the higher drug approval and spending rates provide incentives for drugmakers to conduct clinical trials in the target market. BMI welcomes Quintile's decision to set up a base in Kenya as we believe the establishment of an organised clinical trials environment will encourage foreign investment into the country's clinical research sector. The Kenyan office will be the first East African branch and will conduct trials, provide regulatory support, manage data and statistics and ensure pharmacovigilance.
Meanwhile, a report from the Ministry of Public Health and Sanitation said that it was anticipating a rise in the numbers of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis cases in 2010 to nearly 400, up from the 112 confirmed cases in 2009. Subsequently, in March 2010, the Kenyan government announced that it would be the sole procurer of all tuberculosis medicines to be consumed in the country - therefore assuming the role as the sole supplier of drugs for public and private drug outlets, including chemists. The motivation behind the government's decision is the revelation that there is no uniformity in tuberculosis treatment prescriptions. In some cases patients are prescribed the wrong medication, resulting in the resistance to drugs - a factor that works against disease control efforts.
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Partial Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Kenya Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
- Kenya Political SWOT
- Kenya Economic SWOT
- Kenya Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Middle East And Africa Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings, Q310
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Kenya - Market Summary
- Regulatory Regime
- Recent Regulatory Developments
- Counterfeit Drugs
- Intellectual Property
- Pricing And Reimbursement Regime
- Table: Kenya Medical Supply Agency (KEMSA)'s Mandate
- Regional Regulatory Developments
Industry Developments
- Epidemiology
- Healthcare Provision
- Healthcare Sector Financing
- Healthcare Reforms
- National Drug Policy
- Pharmaceutical Sector
- Recent Pharmaceutical Industries Activities
- Pharmaceutical Distribution
- Supply Chain
- Traditional African Medicine
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Overall Market Forecast
- Key Growth Factors - Industry
- Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
- Table: Kenya - GDP By Expenditure, 2007-2015
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- OTC Drug Market Forecast
- Patented Drug Market Forecast
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Pharmaceutical Export/Import Forecast
- Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
- Multinationals
- GlaxoSmithKline
- Pfizer
- Novartis
- Sanofi-Aventis
- Merck & Co
- Indigenous Producers
- Dawa Limited
- Universal Corporation Limited
- Shelys Pharmaceuticals
- Regal Pharmaceuticals
- High Chem East Africa
Country Snapshot: Kenya Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
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