Colombia's largest coal-mining operation, Cerrejon, joint-owned by mining companies BHP Billiton, Anglo American and Xstrata, has begun exporting to the Chinese market, doubling the distance of shipments that are normally bound for Europe and the US. The news supports BMI's view of a shift in global demand for coal shipping from the Atlantic to the Pacific Basin, a trend being driven by strong Chinese raw-material demand coupled with low freight rates. Cerrejon's CEO, Leon Teicher, as cited by Bloomberg, said coal shipments had begun to ports in China, some 10,000 nautical miles from the mine, which is based in Colombia's Guajira on the country's Caribbean coast.
Although there is a degree of uncertainty - given that presidential elections took place in May - we believe the macroeconomic environment will be supportive of Colombia's shipping and ports sector in 2010. President Alvaro Uribe's successor is likely to continue his centre-right security and economic policies, creating an important element of continuity. While near-term GDP growth looks subdued, the economy is recovering from the cyclical downturn experienced in 2009, and foreign trade performance will be reasonably strong. We forecast that GDP will grow by 2% in 2010, following an estimated contraction of 0.4% in 2009.
At Colombia's main Port of Buenaventura (POB) total tonnage is set to grow quite strongly after defying 2009's recession. Throughput slumped by an estimated 5.9% in 2008 to 9.66mn tonnes, but was able to shrug off the global recession in 2009, posting exceptional growth of 12.7% to 10.89mn tonnes. This year we see a further 7.8% expansion to 11.74mn tonnes. At Cartagena on Colombia's Caribbean coast on the other hand, tonnage is set to grow by 5.1% to 8.87mn tonnes this year, after contracting by 7.1% in 2009.
Box throughput at POB on the Pacific slumped by 8.5% in 2009, and is set to regain some of that with 4.8% growth in 2010 to 678,125 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs). At Cartagena the number of boxes handled will rise by 5.3% to 922,432 TEUs in 2010, in contrast to a fall of 6.4% in 2009.
Foreign trade is playing an active role in Colombia's recovery. Net exports will make a positive contribution to GDP. In real terms total trade value will grow by 5.0% in 2010, partly offsetting the sharp 2009 contraction of 8.7%. In nominal terms we see exports jumping by 21.3% in 2010 to reach US$42.9bn, while imports expand a slightly higher 24.2% to US$69.6bn.
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Report Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Colombia Shipping SWOT
Global Overview
- Container Shipping Overview
- Dry Bulk Overview
- Liquid Bulk Sector Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Market Overview
- Port of Buenaventura
- Overview
- Terminals, Storage And Equipment
- Expansions And Developments
- Multi-Modal Links
- Port of Cartagena
- Overview
- Terminals, Storage And Equipment
- Expansions And Developments
- Multi-Modal Links
Industry Forecast
- Table: Major Port Data
- Table: Trade Overview
- Table: Key Trade Indicators
- Table: Main Import Partners
- Table: Main Export Partners
Company Profiles
- A.P. MOLLER-MAERSK
- Mediterranean Shipping Company
- CMA CGM
- Evergreen Line
- China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company (COSCO)
- Hapag-Lloyd
- Neptune Orient Lines (& APL)
- China Shipping (CSCL)
- Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK)
- Hanjin Shipping
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL)
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