"Brazil Shipping Report Q3 2010" is now available at Fast Market Research

May 28, 2010 - PRLog -- As the global economy continues on a path of moderate recovery in 2010, the outlook for Brazil's shipping and ports sector remains broadly positive. One sign of this is the encouraging trend of Brazilian commodity exports. To give an example, this year's soya exports to China are expected to reach 43mn tonnes after averaging 20% growth per annum over the past three years. This should help boost throughput at Brazil's two key soya export ports, Paranaguae and Santos. According to some reports, soya bean shipments through Paranaguae could be set to grow by as much as 30% this year.

The overall economic and political climate will be supportive. After a small contraction last year we expect that the economy will grow by 5% in 2010 with domestic demand and imports being particularly strong. Presidential elections are due in October. Luis Inacio 'Lula' da Silva is seen as bringing a broadly successful two-term presidency to an end, while seeking the electorate's approval for his chosen successor, Dilma Rousseff. Their moderate and broadly market-friendly centre-left Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) will be challenged on the centre right by Jose Serra of the Partido da Social Democracia Brasilera (PSDB). Whoever wins, we believe Brazil is likely to continue on an outwardly focused development programme, with the football World Cup (2014) and the next-but-one Olympics (set for Rio de Janeiro in 2016) helping to focus investor interest.

Our short-term forecast is for activity levels at Brazil's main ports to surge forward this year, offsetting the contractions or standstill results seen last year. Cargo handled at Santos and Itajai will see double-digit growth based not only on based commodity exports but on a diversified range of goods, including surging imports. Container movements will also be dynamic, expanding faster than overall tonnage. Santos will remain Brazil's most important container-handling facility.

Port and shipping performance will be driven by a recovery in international trade. Here too this year's growth will more than offset last year's contraction. With a strong advance in domestic consumption in this electoral year, imports will be particularly dynamic. However, looking to the medium term, both imports and exports will advance at a substantially faster rate than GDP. Growth in some sectors, such as oil and gas, will help Brazil's current efforts to rebuild its tanker fleet through domestic shipyards.

The risks to our forecast are mixed. Given the presidential elections in October there is a danger that the government might become overenthusiastic in its stimulation of the domestic economy. On the shortterm, this is an upside risk, as overheating will lead to greater than expected import growth and congestion at Brazil's main ports. Inevitably, it would have to be followed by restraint and rebalancing in 2011. Looking to the export side of the trade equation, however, perhaps the main risk is on the downside: the possibility that the global recovery could falter and that some of the key economies may suffer a 'double-dip' recession. This would lead to lower than expected Brazilian exports and maritime freight volumes.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/61075_brazil_shipping_report_q...

Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Brazil Shipping SWOT
Global Overview
- Container Shipping Overview
- Dry Bulk Overview
- Liquid Bulk Sector Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Market Overview
- Port of Santos
- Overview
- Terminals, Storage And Equipment
- Expansions And Developments
- Multi-Modal Links
- Port of Itajai
- Overview
- Terminals, Storage And Equipment
- Expansions And Developments
- Multi-Modal Links
Industry Forecast
- Table: Major Port Data
- Table: Projected Export Growth
- Table: Key Trade Indicators
- Table: Main Import Partners
- Table: Main Export Partners
Company Profiles
- A.P. MOLLER-MAERSK
- Mediterranean Shipping Company
- CMA CGM
- Evergreen Line
- China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company (COSCO)
- Hapag-Lloyd
- Neptune Orient Lines (& APL)
- China Shipping (CSCL)
- Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK)
- Hanjin Shipping
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL)

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