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However, increasing competition and lower profit margins could lead to quality control issues that threaten generic reputation and growth.
A new report* by the independent market analyst suggests that whilst hypertension is the largest market and will continue to strengthen, dyslipidemia is the disease area that will show the highest generic growth over 2008 – 2018 in the seven major markets.
Recent patent expiries in dyslipidemia have already stimulated strong generic sales and the upcoming genericisation of the blockbusters Lipitor (atorvastatin, Pfizer) and Crestor (rosuvastatin, AstraZeneca)
In other areas Thrombosis generics will see impressive progress once the patent protection for Plavix (clopidogrel, Bristol–Myers Squibb, Sanofi–Aventis)
These major patent expiries mean that in order to maintain revenues the branded sector will need to effectively replace the old blockbusters. Despite this, the pipeline of the largest therapy areas in cardiovascular and metabolic disease is dominated not by novel mechanisms of action, but by attempts at lifecycle management in the hope that new life can be instilled in fading franchises.
Gideon Heap, healthcare analyst at Datamonitor, comments: “As the market becomes more genericised, the average price of generics drops and more patients choose to, or are able to, purchase cardiovascular drugs. Generic manufacturers sizing their potential market should be aware they are competing not just for the population currently taking a drug, but potentially others who only have access to lower priced drugs.”
However, a fiercely competitive environment between generic manufacturers is compelling them to cut manufacturing costs. This phenomenon is clearly illustrated by the fact that despite a volume growth of 10% in 2007–08, cardiovascular and metabolic generics revenues shrunk by 9% in the same period.
Gideon concludes: “A rather worrying consequence of these cost-cutting measures is the effect on quality control and safety standards”. This could be the biggest threat to continued generic success.
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Notes for editors
* Cardiovascular and Metabolic Generics |Generics continue to gain prominence
Gideon Heap, healthcare analyst at Datamonitor is available for comment.
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