The latest Germany Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 17.60% of developed European regional oil demand by 2014, while making a contribution of just 1.08% to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption was an estimated 13.28mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to recover to around 13.53mn b/d by 2014. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 4.79mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.70mn b/d by 2014.
Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2009, net crude imports were an estimated 8.49mn b/d. By 2014, they are expected to have reached 9.83mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2009 consumed an estimated 426bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 473bcm targeted for 2014, representing 10.9% growth. Production of an estimated 265bcm in 2009 is set to fall to 263bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2009 level of 161bcm to some 210bcm by the end of the period. Germany's share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 19.00%, while it accounted for 4.99% of production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 19.67%, with a 4.37% share of production.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
In 2010, BMI is now forecasting premium unleaded gasoline prices at an average US$97.00, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. We are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63 in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50 in 2009. The FY10 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl compares with US$59.07 in FY09.
German real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 5.0% in 2009, compared with growth of 1.3% in 2008. We are assuming 1.6% average annual growth in 2010-2014. Our forecast is for minimal oil demand growth to 2014, with end-period consumption at no more than 2.38mn b/d after declining demand in 2008/09. Gas consumption is now 24% of primary energy demand, accounting for 11% of power generation supply. Our estimate is for gas demand to rise from an estimated 81bcm in 2009 to 93bcm by 2014. Germany's gas production is forecast to fall from an estimated 13.2bcm in 2009 to 11.5bcm over the period.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in German oil and gas liquids consumption of 5.66%, with volumes peaking at 2.41mn b/d in 2011-13, then heading lower to 2.26mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Production is set to fall from an estimated 55,000b/d to just 25,000b/d during the same period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2009 level of 81bcm to a peak of 93bcm by 2013/2014, before slipping back to 89bcm by 2019. Imports are expected to peak at 81.5bcm in 2014, in the form of pipeline volumes. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI's Country Risk team, Germany's long-term political risk score is 85.8, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.8 and the global average of 63.2. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 74.4, above the Developed Markets average of 67.2 and the global average of 53.6. Germany has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a small upstream oil and gas segment, with international oil company (IOC) and local company involvement. Downstream oil features a mixture of IOCs and domestic companies, while gas and electricity interests remain in largely German (non-state) hands.
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Partial Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Germany Political SWOT
- Germany Economic SWOT
Germany Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Outlook Q110
- Not So Bleak Midwinter
- Oil Price Forecasts
Global Oil Market Review Q409
- Cold Snap Provides A Warm Glow
- Quarterly Trends
- Nigeria And Iraq Pose Problems
Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook Q110
- Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Short-Term Demand Outlook
- Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
- Short-Term Supply Outlook
- Longer-Term Supply And Demand
- Oil Price Assumptions
- Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010
- Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Regional Energy Market Overview
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d)
- Oil: Downstream
- Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
- Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm)
- Liquefied Natural Gas
- Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports)
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Gas Supply And Demand
- LNG
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Table: Germany Oil & Gas - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Other Energy
- Table: Germany Other Energy - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Oil and Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Germany
- Service Stations
- Oil Pipelines
- Oil Terminals
- Oil Storage
- Gas Pipelines
- Gas Storage
- LNG Terminals
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