The new Belgium Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 6.14% of developed European regional oil demand by 2014, while making no appreciable contribution to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption was an estimated 13.28mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to recover to around 13.53mn b/d by 2014. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 4.79mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.70mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2009, net crude imports were an estimated 8.49mn b/d. By 2014, they are expected to have reached 9.83mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2009 consumed an estimated 426bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 473bcm targeted for 2014, representing 10.9% growth. Production of an estimated 265bcm in 2009 is set to fall to 263bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2009 level of 161bcm to some 210bcm by the end of the period. Belgium's share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 3.99%, while it makes no meaningful contribution to regional production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.78%.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
In 2010, BMI is now forecasting premium unleaded gasoline prices at an average US$97.00, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. We are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63 in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50 in 2009. The FY10 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl compares with US$59.07 in FY09.
Belgian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 3.2% in 2009, compared with 1.0% growth in 2008. We are assuming average annual growth of 1.5% 2010-2014. Oil demand is expected to have declined in 2009, before recovering slowly to reach 830,000b/d by 2014. From an estimated 17.0bcm in 2009, we expect to see gas demand rise to a minimum of 17.9bcm by 2014, all met by increased pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Belgian oil and gas liquids consumption of 0.61%, with volumes rising slowly from an estimated 820,000b/d in 2009 to 825,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2009 level of 17.0bcm to 18.8bcm by 2019, all based on LNG and pipeline imports. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI's Country Risk team, Belgium's long-term political risk score is 74.7, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.8 and the global average of 63.2. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 66.9, above the Developed Markets average of 67.2 and the global average of 53.6. Belgium has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is no upstream oil and gas segment but downstream oil and gas features a mixture of international oil companies (IOCs) and former state companies now in foreign hands. Both the gas and power markets are open to competition.
For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
- http://www.fastmr.com/
Partial Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Belgium Political SWOT
- Belgium Economic SWOT
Belgium Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Outlook Q110
- Not So Bleak Midwinter
- Oil Price Forecasts
Global Oil Market Review Q409
- Cold Snap Provides A Warm Glow
- Quarterly Trends
- Nigeria And Iraq Pose Problems
Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook Q110
- Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Short-Term Demand Outlook
- Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
- Short-Term Supply Outlook
- Longer-Term Supply And Demand
- Oil Price Assumptions
- Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010
- Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Regional Energy Market Overview
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d)
- Oil: Downstream
- Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
- Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm)
- Liquefied Natural Gas
- Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports)
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Gas Supply And Demand
- LNG
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Table: Belgium Oil And Gas - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Other Energy
- Table: Belgium Other Energy - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Service Stations
- Oil Storage Facilities
- Oil Terminals/Ports
- Oil Pipelines
- LNG Terminals
- Gas Storage Facilities
- Gas Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Belgium - Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players - Belgian Oil And Gas Sector
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy
- International Energy Relations
- Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
- Total
- ExxonMobil
- Petroplus
- Distrigas
- GDF Suez
Glossary Of Terms
Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
