In this quarter's Egypt Telecommunications Report, we have revised our forecasts for the mobile and internet sectors following newly launched data for the end of 2009, as well as those of the fixed-line market, which reported a first-time decline last year. Egypt's fixed-line sector contracted by 11.9%, which saw its fixed lines in service reach 10.313mn. That the country has managed to hold onto growth in the sector compared with the global decline in fixed lines is perhaps related in part to the deployment of fixed lines in ADSL connections. However, with mobile penetration rates now at 70%, it is not surprising that greater mobile substitution is taking the place of fixed lines, which has contributed to the latter's decline.
There were a total of 56.409mn mobile subscribers at the end of 2009, revealing y-o-y growth of 26.1%. This was lower than in previous years, which saw 2008 report growth of 44%. A reason for the slowdown, aside from maturing penetration rates, has been the economic recession - BMI expects to report lower GDP growth in 2010 compared with 2009, but with an improvement in 2011. BMI estimates the mobile sector to expand by 23% in 2010 to reach 69.383mn subscribers and a penetration rate of 85.1%. By the end of 2014, we forecast penetration of 132.4%, but which contains a number of inactive SIMs.
The government, meanwhile, has drawn up plans to invest US$1bn over the next five years into improving broadband services, in terms of quality and reliability. While there were 1.027mn broadband subscribers at the end of 2009, this accounted for just 1.3% of the population. Tarek Kamel, the Minister of Communications and Information Technology, said that the goal would be to get 4mn households connected to broadband within four years. He characterised this as a fourfold increase, which corresponds to some degree with the figure of approximately 1mn broadband connections at present, although a good number of these will be to businesses rather than households. Kamel added that the investment would be in a combination of fixed-line, wireless and mobile technologies, suggesting that he sees 3G connections as part of the solution.
Mobile broadband connections over 3G networks are seen as the second largest technology access group next to ADSL lines in the broadband market, and have helped to bring connectivity to areas where there is a lack of fixed-line network coverage. No-one, neither the various agencies nor the operators, is at present providing good data on the number of 3G dongles in use in Egypt, but BMI's own observations of the market suggest that they are popular among high-end users and businesses. Some have suggested that they may soon overtake fixed-line connections as the principle form of connection to the internet in Egypt.
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Report Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Egypt Mobile Sector SWOT
- Egypt Fixed-Line And Broadband Sector SWOT
- Egypt Political SWOT
- Egypt Economic SWOT
- Egypt Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment
- Middle East And North Africa
- Egypt
- Table: Regional Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Mobile
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Fixed Line
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Internet
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Market Data Analysis
- Mobile
Market Shares
- Table: Egypt Mobile Subscribers, Q409
- Table: Egypt Mobile Net Additions, Q409
- Table: Subscriber Mix, 2007-2009
- ARPUs
- 3G
- Mobile Contract Wins
- Table: Mobile Contract Wins
- Value-Added Services Timeline
- Table: Selected VAS Services
- Mobile Operator Data
- Country: Egypt
- Vodafone
- Etisalat
- Fixed Line
- Broadband
- Table: Wireline Developments
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
- Egypt: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
- Legislation And Market Liberalisation
- Regulation
- Licensing And Spectrum
- Regulatory Developments
Competitive Landscape
- Company Monitor
- Table: Nokia Financial Highlights
- Table: Nokia's Position In The Global Handset Market, Unit Sales (mn)
- Table: Nokia's Position In The Global Handset Market, Unit Sales (mn)
- Table: Nokia Siemens Networks Net Sales By Geographic Area
- Table: Nokia Siemens Networks Recent Contract Wins In The Middle East And Africa
- Profiles
- Telecom Egypt
- Mobinil
- Vodafone Egypt
Appendix:
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
- Fixed Line
- Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
- Mobile
- Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
- Internet
- Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Country Snapshot: Egypt Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2010
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
Glossary Of Terms
- Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
- Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
- Table: Ratings Indicators
- Sources
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