The new Canada Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 10.67% of North American regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing 32.55% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption was an estimated 20.87mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to rise to around 22.02mn b/d by 2014. North American regional oil production in 2009 averaged an estimated 10.45mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.60mn b/d by 2014. Net imports for the region should be 11.42mn b/d in 2014 - up from an estimated 10.42mn b/d in 2009.
In terms of natural gas, North America consumed an estimated 742bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 804bcm targeted for 2014, representing 8.4% growth. Estimated production of 748bcm in 2009 should ease to 723bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising to some 81bcm by the end of the period. Canada's share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 13.07%, while it contributed 24.06% to regional production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 13.18%, with 25.31% of regional supply.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
In 2010, BMI is now forecasting premium unleaded gasoline prices at an average US$97.00, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. We are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63 in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50 in 2009. The FY10 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl compares with US$59.07 in FY09.
Canadian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 2.5% in 2009, compared with growth of 0.4% in 2008. We are assuming 2.7% average annual growth in 2010-2014. The country's oil demand is expected to average 2.27mn b/d in 2010, before rising to 2.35mn b/d by 2014. Oil output looks set to reach 3.45mn b/d by 2014, subject to oil sands development.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Canadian oil production of 30.2%, with output rising steadily from an estimated 3.15mn b/d in 2009 to 4.10mn b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given that oil consumption is forecast to increase by just 2.29%, exports should rise from an estimated 0.94mn b/d to 1.83mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should fall from the estimated 2009 level of 180bcm to 165bcm in 2019. Demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 97bcm to 113bcm, leaving net exports falling to 52bcm, largely to the US. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI's Country Risk team, Canada's long-term political risk score is 94.3, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.8 and the global average of 63.2. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 67.4, above the Developed Markets average of 67.2 and above the global average of 53.6. Canada has a privatised energy sector that boasts a large, competitive upstream oil and gas segment featuring domestic independents and integrated companies, plus direct and indirect participation by international oil companies (IOCs). The downstream segment is shared by IOC-controlled domestic companies and former state company Petro-Canada, which Suncor acquired in 2009.
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Partial Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Canada Political SWOT
- Canada Economic SWOT
Canada Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Outlook Q110
- Not So Bleak Midwinter
- Oil Price Forecasts
Global Oil Market Review Q409
- Cold Snap Provides A Warm Glow
- Quarterly Trends
- Nigeria And Iraq Pose Problems
Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook Q110
- Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Short-Term Demand Outlook
- Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
- Short-Term Supply Outlook
- Longer-Term Supply And Demand
- Oil Price Assumptions
- Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010
- Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Regional Energy Market Overview
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d)
- Oil: Downstream
- Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
- Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm)
- Liquefied Natural Gas
- Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports)
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Gas Supply And Demand
- LNG
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Table: Canada Oil & Gas - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Other Energy
- Table: Canada Other Energy - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Service Stations
- Oil Pipelines
- LNG Terminals
- Gas Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Canada - GDP By Expenditure
Competitive Landscape
- Table: Key Players - Canadian Oil & Gas Sector
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing And Regulation
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
- Suncor/Petro-
- Shell Canada
- EnCana
- Cenovus Energy - Summary
- ConocoPhillips - Summary
- Chevron - Summary
- Devon Energy - Summary
- Syncrude - Summary
- BP Canada - Summary
- Husky Energy - Summary
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