Market Report, "South Africa Power Report Q2 2010", published

April 18, 2010 - PRLog -- The new  South Africa Power Report from  BMI forecasts that the country will account for 19.51% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2013.  BMI's MEA power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,178 terawatt hours (twh), representing an increase of 5.5% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,523twh by 2013, representing a rise of 29.3% between 2008 and the end of the period.  BMI estimates thermal power generation in 2008 at 1,100twh, accounting for 93.4% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,414twh, implying 35.7% growth that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 92.8% - thanks in part to environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. South Africa's thermal generation in 2008 was an estimated 245twh, or 22.3% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 19.25% of thermal generation. For South Africa, in 2007 coal was the dominant fuel, accounting for 76.5% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 20.2% and nuclear with a 2.3% share. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 853mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 19.6% growth over the period since 2008. South Africa's estimated 2008 market share of 18.02% is set to fall to 16.36% by 2013. The country's estimated 13.2twh of nuclear demand in 2008 is forecast to reach 17.0twh by 2013, with its share of the MEA nuclear market falling from 100% to 68% over the period. South Africa is now ranked equal third with Qatar and Saudi Arabia in  BMI's updated Power Business Environment rating, thanks largely to its significant market size, low level of energy import dependency and reasonably high proportion of renewables use. The power sector is not yet competitive, with little progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment remains relatively unattractive. While South Africa is currently just one point ahead of Iran, it has the potential to move above Saudi Arabia.  BMI is now forecasting South African real GDP growth averaging 2.82% per annum between 2008 and 2013, with a decline of 0.30% forecast for 2009. Population is expected to expand from 48.7mn to 51.2mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 34% and 4%, respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 240twh in 2008 to 266twh by the end of the forecast period, improving the supply/demand balance if the country can deliver our forecast annual 2.2% of generation growth. Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in South African electricity generation of 34.9%, which represents the bottom of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 18.8% in the 2013-2018 period, up from 12.5% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to increase from 8.6% in 2008-2013 to 15.9%, representing 26.5% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 113% in hydropower use during 2007- 2018 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 32% between 2007 and 2018, with nuclear consumption up 52%. More details of the longer-term  BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.

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