In BMI's Mexico Agribusiness Report for Q1 2010 we look at how Mexico's agricultural sector is faring moving into 2010. It appears that the dry weather through last summer will not have too drastic an effect for grain production in most of the country. While production of corn, Mexico's staple food and mos significant grain crop, will be down from the previous year owing to a fall in yields, the damage will no be too severe. Production of Mexico's other major grain crops, wheat and sorghum, looks to be largely unaffected. The livestock sector in Mexico is coping with the recession somewhat better than expected. We estimate beef and poultry production to have shown positive growth in 2009, even if it was some what anaemic at an estimated 2.0% and 1.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), respectively. We are forecasting similar levels of growth in 2010 as operators continue to keep expansion plans on hold owing to high debt levels and tight credit conditions. The pork sector recovered quickly from April's H1N1 epidemic. We now estimate pork production for 2009 to have fallen by only 0.6% y-o-y. This is an impressive outturn given the falls in production in the middle of the year following the flu scare. Pork consumption has also recovered quickly, helped by the low price for pork after the outbreak which drew in value-conscious consumers in a recension year. The recovery from what at first looked to be a major blow to the sector was greatly helped by prompt government action to allay fears about the health risks of pork consumption and to provide aid to farmers hit by the crisis. In 2010, we now forecast pork production to return to positive growth. The dairy sector performed less well, and we now estimate milk production to have fallen slightly in 2009. Mexico's dairy sector continues to lag well behind that of its giant northern neighbour in terms of efficiency. In 2008, in the US milk production per cow was 9.28 tonnes, almost double the figure in Mexico. Things have been improving in recent years, however; from 1998 to 2008, milk yields per head of dairy cattle rose from 3.80 tonnes to 4.50 tonnes. This is largely down to the proliferation of modern, specialised dairy farms where yields are similar to those on farms in the southern United States. Yet much of Mexico's dairy production still comes from small, back-yard dairy producers and mixed use beef and dairy farms where milk yields are far lower than in specialised dairy farms. Beyond the current economic downturn, we expect to see more investment in modern dairy farms. This will see the centre of the country's dairy sector move northwards as investment concentrates on northern states such as Durango, Chihuahua and Coahuila.
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