Israel continues to slide down BMI's Business Environment Ratings table, as the Q110 update sees it now ranking 12th out of the 17 Middle East and African (MEA) markets surveyed. Globally, Israel is judged to be the tenth least-attractive pharmaceutical market, out of the total of 71 countries assessed by BMI. Although Israel offers an attractive demographic and epidemiological base for pharmaceutical investment, the country's biased intellectual property (IP) regime as well as its restrictive pricing and reimbursement environment will continue to hamper multinational involvement. In the five-year forecast period (2009-2014), we expect the country's pharmaceutical spending to increase by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just 0.94%, to reach ILS5.71bn (US$1.50bn). Given their preference for generics, the dominance of 'sick funds' as purchasers of medicines will lead to a considerable increase in the generic market's share as a proportion of total, negatively impacting overall market value development. Additionally, despite emerging from recession in Q209, we still see real GDP contracting over 2009 as a whole, by a modest -0.9%. Looking into 2010, our forecasts are more or less on a par with the Bank of Israel (BoI)'s expectations - of 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively - which will also weigh on pharmaceutical expenditure. Nevertheless, the Israeli life sciences and medical devices industries appear to be more resilient to the challenging operating environment, continuing to receive investment and interest from foreign parties. For example, in November 2009, two weeks after Israeli Protalix Biotherapeutics announced the success of phase III clinical trials for a pipeline treatment for Gaucher's disease, the world's largest drugmaker Pfizer held a preliminary meeting with the firm, which may result in a possible buy-out or a co-licensing deal. Around the same time, leading domestic pharmaceutical producer Teva, which is also expected to show interest in Protalix, sold global rights to biosimilar filgrastim and its manufacturing plant in Croatia to global specialty company Hospira, as part of its strategy to reduce asset duplication. In news that is set to boost the export potential for Israeli companies, the European Union (EU) authorities recently announced that Israel's Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) are sufficient not to warrant additional testing when drugs are exported to Europe. The change will significantly cuts costs for Israel's pharmaceutical firms following its expected implementation in 2010. This progression by the EU is a landmark for Israel, particularly as it is not a current or pending EU member itself. In the meantime, the Israeli pharmaceutical industry continues to move away from any Middle Eastern harmonisation and toward entering EU healthcare markets.
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