Industry observers are confident that the Australian metals industry will return to peak condition within the next three years. This largely ties into BMI 's projection for crude steel output to reach 9.3mn tonnes in 2014, compared with 6.2mn tonnes in FY09. The real value of this surge would be witnessed within the iron ore, coal and copper sectors as production picks up across the commodities sector in 2010 and accelerates in line with a surging global demand. Another interesting statistic to note appeared in the November issue of Australian Mining , when an industry analyst stated that 'the expected decline in mining investment over the next 12 to 18 months will be relatively mild, considering the four-fold increase in mining investment since 2002'. While the economic recession had dented metals demand, the long-term outlook for commodities is still strong. However, rising production and investment growth could in fact bear witness to a return of the same supply-side problems that restricted the industry during the previous economic boom, including transport capacity constraints, skills shortages and inadequate exploration capabilities. The metals industry has reached a somewhat unique period with regards to wh ich direction should be taken to effectively take advantage of a possible period of recovery. Industry experts and analysts feel that, although the recovery with regards to investment within the base metals sector will be slower than other commodities, the long- term outlook is solid. This is further backed by indications showing there to be rapid steel-intensive growth in emerging markets such as China. BMI believes that Australia's steel exports will reach a value of US$1.7bn in 2014, up from a level of US$1.3bn in 2008. In the local market, Australian steelmaker OneSteel is expecting an increase in demand in H209 as a result of the construction sector being in better health, buoyed as it has been by a government-backed stimulus package. OneSteel is expecting output to increase by 100,000 tonnes from H109, helped by continuing low prices of iron ore. Meanwhile, one of the more influential developments within Q409 was the Australian government's decision to impose a 16% duty on certain aluminium extrusions from Chinese markets. Although anti- dumping cases are fairly routine occurrences for large export markets such as China and its associated trading partners, the country has been extremely persistent in defending markets for the exports on which its economy depends. The case is clearly problematic as trade data released early in November 2009 suggests that China has overtaken Japan as Australia's largest trading partner. The entire two-way trade results between the two countries were shown to have increased by 30% to AUD83bn for the FY2008/9.
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