Outlook for 2010-11
The political outlook for the Central African Republic (CAR) remains uncertain, although prospects for resolving the country's crisis are improving owing to the ongoing—if irregular—implementation of the recommendations adopted after the inclusive political dialogue (IPD), which took place in December 2008. The president, Francois Bozize, will maintain a firm grip on the capital, Bangui, but he will need international help to stabilise the remote border regions, notably from the UN peacekeeping force, MINURCAT 2, and the regional force, Micopax. Mr Bozize is expected to be re-elected in the presidential poll, which is likely to take place in late 2010 or early 2011. Real GDP is projected to grow by 3.7% in 2010 and 4.3% in 2011, as output and prices of the CAR's main exports—timber and diamonds—pick up, and heavy government investment drives up domestic demand. This will fuel the return of inflationary pressures, increasing average inflation to 4.8% in 2010 and 5.3% in 2011.
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The political scene
The opposition has temporarily withdrawn its participation in the electoral commission, Commission electorale independante (CEI), following a dispute with the CEI president, further delaying the electoral process. Martin Ziguele has been confirmed as the leader of the main opposition party, Mouvement pour la liberation du peuple centrafricain (MLPC), after legal action by the party's former leader, Ange-Felix Patasse. Clashes have continued between the army and a splinter rebel group, Convention des patriotes pour la justice et la paix, whose leader, Charles Massi, has reportedly died in custody.
Economic policy
The IMF Executive Board has endorsed the fifth review of the CAR's three-year poverty reduction and growth facility arrangement and concluded the country's annual Article IV consultation, confirming the positive assessment made by the IMF mission to Bangui in September. However, the Fund urged the government to strengthen the banking system and improve private-sector access to credit, both of which have acted as a restraint on economic growth, and to ensure that the level of domestic debt remains sustainable.
The domestic economy
The CAR government has increased pressure on a French nuclear group, Areva, to start developing the Bakouma uranium deposit, located 100 km north of Bangassou, in 2010, in accordance with the company's mining convention.
Foreign trade and payments
According to the IMF's latest International Financial Statistics, the CAR's level of foreign-exchange reserves fluctuated throughout 2009, reflecting changing terms of trade and sporadic inflows of foreign direct investment.
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