Relations between Colombia and its neighbours remain perilous. The unveiling of the details of plans to allow the US military and defence contractors to base themselves on Colombian territory have further strained neighbourly relations. That said, we hold on to our view that military conflict between the Andean neighbours remains unlikely. Of particular concern are relations with Venezuela. Relations between Caracas and Bogota hit another low on November 1 when the Venezuelan government said that 11 Colombians who were taken hostage in the Venezuelan border state of Táchira and subsequently murdered were part of a paramilitary infiltration aimed at destabilising President Hugo Chávez's regime. Chávez has said that Colombia's deal with the US, which grants the US military and contractors 10-year access to seven military bases, immunity from prosecution, and even the use of international airports, is a threat to Venezuela's security. On November 6, 2009 the AP news agency reported that Chavez had ordered the deployment of 15,000 troops to the border after his vice-president, Ramon Carrizalez, accused Colombia of creating a 'pre-war atmosphere'. The risks posed by Chávez to the Colombian export sector by the policies are finally feeding through to headline figures, in line with our long-held view that he represents a major threat to the country's economic wellbeing. October data from the Colombia statistical bureau shows that exports to Venezuela, Colombia's second biggest trading partner, fell by a dramatic 45.7% in August compared to the same month in 2008. This shows the immediate impact of Chávez's decision in late July to block all imports from his Andean neighbour, and leaves year-to-date exports 9.8% lower than 2008 levels. On a more positive note, the decline of the major paramilitary groups has vastly improved security. That said, there is no room for complacency:
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