Feb. 27, 2010 -
PRLog -- After showing signs of slowing growth in Q208, Iraq's mobile market has picked up in Q308, indicating, as BMI predicted, that the lower net additions in Q2 were merely a blip on a trajectory of strong growth. In Q308 there were 1.085mn net additions, compared to only 588,000 in Q208. This took the total mobile subscribers in the country to 16.805mn by the end of September, showing 31% y-o-y growth, and 7% qo- q growth. Despite the fact that net additions showed a big improvement on Q208, growth figures still indicate that growth is starting to slow. In Q307, by way of comparison, y-o-y growth was 52%, and q-oq growth was 10%. Both of Iraq's leading mobile operators, Kuwaiti-owned Zain and Qatar Telecom's Asiacell, have been investing in their networks, and this helps to contribute to growth. In May 2008 Zain contracted Nokia Siemens Networks to expand its coverage nationwide, and this work is ongoing, while Qatar Telecom committed in June 2008 to spending US$1bn over the ensuing two years on improving Asiacell's network. Both of these projects will help to keep growth going. BMI estimates the penetration rate at the end of 2008 to be 61.6%. While this shows that there is still a good deal of growth to be had, expanding coverage to reach all people will be important to fully exploiting it. Another potential source of new investment for the industry comes in the form of the UAE's Etisalat. Etisalat appears to regret choosing to stay out of Iraq when licences were originally awarded and in September 2008 declared its firm intention to invest in Iraq by buying up an established operator. Korek Telecom was soon afterwards revealed as its target, but despite Etisalat's apparent firmness of purpose, the deal is yet to go through, and talks are ongoing. There has been talk in the past of several operators, including Etisalat itself, buying Korek, and no deal has yet gone through. However, Etisalat would be an excellent addition to Iraq's mobile market, as it would stimulate greater competition and bring in a fresh source of ready investment. BMI has retained its previous set of forecast figures for mobile subscriber growth in Iraq, although we have slightly adjusted out expectations of population growth, which have in turn affected penetration figures. As we enter 2009, we have extended the forecast period to 2013, when we predict there will be over 38mn mobile subscribers. We expect penetration to push through 100% during the early parts of 2012. Iraq has moved back down to ninth in our Business Environment Rankings, the same position it was in two quarters ago. This reversal of fortune is on the whole due to the re-ascendancy of Kuwait, which had fallen behind its neighbour. Iraq has also fallen very slightly in the country structure category, reflecting a low purchasing power among the people.
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