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It has never been difficult to draw Nogueira into a striking match, and although Velasquez can't straight-up outbox the Brazilian, he has proven nasty in close quarters. Nogueira's reach and power make him a solid boxer, but he doesn't control range well and his footwork has slowed considerably. That will give Velasquez plenty of opportunity to step inside and force "Minotauro" into a phone-booth fight.
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Nogueira has made a career out of taking everything his opponents can bring and turning the tables in the blink of an eye. Velasquez may have responded to every step up in competition the UFC has handed him, but nothing can prepare him for this test.
The bottom line: This will be a strong fight, and neither fighter will dominate it. Nogueira will repeatedly clip Velasquez as he advances and will give him fits on the mat. Expect the American Kickboxing Academy product to respond by throwing the entire kitchen at the Brazilian jiu-jitsu demigod, in the clinch and from top control. A coin-flip decision goes to Velasquez, and the rest of the UFC heavyweight division will have someone new to worry about.
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