New Market Report Now Available: Egypt Power Report Q1 2010

PRLog (Press Release) - Feb 21, 2010 -
The new  Egypt Power Report from  BMI forecasts that the country will account for 9.7% of Middle East/Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2013, with a modest theoretical generation surplus.  BMI's MEA power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,178 terawatt hours (twh), representing an increase of 5.5% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,523twh by 2013, representing a rise of 29.3% between 2008 and the end of the period. Thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated by  BMI at 1,100twh, accounting for 93.4% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,414twh, implying 35.7% growth that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 92.8% - thanks in part to environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Egypt's thermal generation in 2008 was an estimated 110twh, or 10.0% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 9.1% of thermal generation. For Egypt, oil was in 2007 the dominant fuel, accounting for 48.4% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 45.6% and hydro with a 4.6% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 853mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 19.6% growth over the period since 2008. Egypt's estimated 2008 market share of 9.3% is set to rise to 9.7% by 2013. The country's estimated 14.9twh of hydro generation in 2008 is forecast to reach 18.7twh by 2013, with its share of the MEA hydro market falling from 34.6% to 32.4% over the period. Egypt is once again ranked second, having been overtaken by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), in  BMI's updated Power Business Environment rating, reflecting its market size and high proportion of renewables (hydropower) use. While the regulatory environment is not particularly attractive, the power sector is modestly competitive, with some progress towards privatisation. Egypt is just one point behind the UAE and can be expected to mount a fresh challenge for regional leadership during the next few quarters.  BMI is forecasting real GDP growth averaging 4.2% per annum between 2008 and 2013, with the 2009 forecast being 1.8%. Population is expected to expand from 76.3mn to 82.8mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 78% and 9%, respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 108twh in 2008 to 128twh by the end of the forecast period, while theoretical surplus capacity is forecast to be 20twh in 2013, assuming 3.7% annual growth in electricity generation. Between 2007 and 2018 we are forecasting an increase in Egyptian electricity generation of 58.4%, which is towards the lower end of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 27.6% in the 2013-2018 period, up from 18.2% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to decrease from 25.9% in 2008-2013 to 19.3%, representing 56.9% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 69.5% in hydropower use during 2007- 2018 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 56.9% between 2007 and 2018. More details of the longer-term  BMI power forecasts can be found in the  Appendix of this report.

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