The latest US Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 89.53% of North American regional oil demand by 2013, while contributing 63.72% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption reached an estimated 21.68mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2008. It is set to rise to around 21.78mn b/d by 2013. North American regional oil production in 2008 averaged an estimated 10.18mn b/d. It is set to rise to 11.30mn b/d by 2013. In terms of natural gas, North America in 2008 consumed an estimated 754bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 807bcm targeted for 2013, representing 7.5% growth. Production of an estimated 731bcm in 2008 should rise to 726bcm in 2013, which implies net imports rising to some 81bcm by the end of the period. The US share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 87.37%, while it provided 74.69% of production. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 87.21%, with 74.39% of production. In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q4 2008 was an estimated US$52.53 per barrel (bbl), down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (- 45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl. In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 - just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl. US real GDP is forecast by BMI to fall by 2.3% in 2009, down from growth estimated at 1.2% in 2008. We are assuming an average annual 1.5% growth in 2009-13. Average US oil and liquids production is estimated at 7.20mn b/d in 2009. By 2013, we are also forecasting output of 7.20mn b/d. Our estimate for 2009 US oil demand is 19.10mn b/d, thanks to the impact of the economic slowdown on consumption. We now see US oil use hitting 19.50mn b/d by 2013. This would require crude imports of 12.30mn b/d. Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in US oil production of just 1.03%, with output peaking at 7.40mn b/d in 2011. Given oil consumption forecast to fall by 7.66%, imports ease from an estimated 12.47mn b/d in 2008 to 12.16mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should rise from the estimated 2008 level of 546bcm to 560bcm in 2018. Demand is forecast to rise from 659bcm to 735bcm, requiring net imports rising to a 2016 peak of 200bcm, in the form of pipeline volumes and LNG. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections. Our long-term political rating is 85.2, well above the global average of 63.9, and just below the Developed Markets average of 85.8. It is well beneath Canada's 94.3. Our long-term economic rating is 68.0, which compares with a global average of 56.2 and the Developed Markets average of 68.9. The score again puts the US behind Canada (70.4). The US is a de-regulated, highly competitive and relatively mature energy market. There are numerous international and domestic companies operating at all levels, from exploration, through pipelines, refining and retailing. The market is dominated by US-based organisations, with Britain's BP the biggest foreign investor, followed by Royal Dutch Shell.
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