According to BMI's UK Metals Report, the British aluminium and steel industries will be changed forever by the country's deep and long recession, with temporary and permanent plant closures throughout the production chain. The first half of 2008 witnessed high steel demand leading to shortages and rapidly rising prices. By Q408, the manufacturing industry was knocked by the global financial crisis and resulting economic downturn. BMI believes the UK economy is faced with a recession that will change the face of British metallurgical industries, with temporary stoppages and the certainty of some permanent closures. While the UK is faced with the same problems as the rest of the world, it also suffers from poor payment performance and suppliers reluctant to extend credit without insurance. With insurance companies removing cover on many manufacturers in key sectors for the aluminium and steel industries (construction and automotive), business risk has escalated. Struggling with flagging orders, suppliers are forced into high risk lending and exposure to bad debt. This could exacerbate the problems facing the industry over the medium term, particularly as closures are expected in the supply chain. By 2010, the steel and aluminium industries, along with distribution and consumption, are likely to be very different. The British metallurgical industry is faced with a deep crisis caused by a collapse in the credit market and its impact on key metals markets, notably the manufacturing and construction industries. Steel production is set to plunge to levels not seen since the 1970s as the country's largest steelmaker, Corus, slashes output. In 2008, output was down 5.6% to 13.58mn tonnes with monthly output at around 580,000 tonnes in December, down 53% year-on-year (y-o-y). Corus, the UK's sole integrated producer of crude steel, slashed production to 60% of capacity in Q109 and threatened to close all its EU operations in response to EU carbon credit legislation, which it says will make its operations uncompetitive and unprofitable. In the third quarter of FY08/09 (October-December)
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