The new Ukraine Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 9.43% of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)'s regional power generation by 2013, and remain a modest net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states. CEE power generation in 2008 was an estimated 2,111 terawatt hours (twh), representing an increase of 2.9% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 2,461twh by 2013 - representing an increase of 16.6%. CEE thermal power generation in 2008 was an estimated 1,323twh, accounting for 62.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,474twh, implying 11.4% growth that reduces only slightly the market share of thermal generation to 59.9% - in spite of environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Ukraine's thermal generation in 2008 was an estimated 92twh, or 7.0% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 7.1% of thermal generation. For Ukraine, gas is the dominant fuel, in 2007 accounting for 42.8% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by coal at 28.9%, nuclear energy at 15.4%, with oil having an 11.3% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,630mn toe by 2013, representing 16.4% growth over the period. Ukraine's estimated 2008 market share of 10.00% is set to ease to 9.56% by 2013. Ukraine in 2008 accounted for an estimated 26.58% of regional nuclear energy consumption, with its share down to 24.39% by 2013. Ukraine retains last place behind even Hungary in BMI's updated Power Business Environment rating. There is no reason to expect Ukraine to be able to mount a challenge for promotion over the short to medium term. The current score reflects the considerable size of the country's electricity market and infrastructure. Country risk factors offset the respectable industry scores. BMI is now forecasting Ukrainian real GDP growth averaging 2.3% per annum between 2008 and 2013, although the 2009 estimate is for a decline of 7.2%. Population is expected to contract from 46.1mn to 45.2mn over the period, but GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase by 26% and 6% respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 192twh in 2008 to 200twh by the end of the forecast period, while potential exports are expected to rise from an estimated 8twh in 2008 to 33twh in 2013, assuming 3.0% annual growth in electricity generation. Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Ukrainian electricity generation of 31.5%, which is towards the bottom of the range for the CEE region. This equates to 10.4% in the 2013-2018 period, down from 16.1% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to rise from 11.1% in 2008-2013 to 15.9%, representing 32.7% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 115.0% in hydro-power use during 2007-2018 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 24.1% between 2007 and 2018, with nuclear consumption up 29.7%. More detail of BMI's long-term forecasts can be found towards the end of this report.
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