The latest Chile Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 4.55% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2013, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.66mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 7.72mn b/d in 2008. It should average 7.86mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 8.58mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was just under 10.40mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 9.99mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.78mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are slipping, because demand growth is exceeding the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.73mn b/d. This total had fallen to an estimated 2.27mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to be 2.21mn b/d in 2013. In terms of natural gas, the Latin America region in 2008 consumed an estimated 194bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 266bcm targeted for 2013, representing 45% growth. Estimated production of 208bcm in 2008 should reach 294bcm in 2013, and implies 28bcm of net exports the end of the period. Chile's share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 2.84%, while it has no significant share of production. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 2.95%. In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53/bbl, down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (-45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl. In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 - just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl. Chilean real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 1.8% for 2009, down from an estimated 4.0% in 2008. We are assuming 2.5% growth in 2010, 3.6% in 2011, 4.2% in 2012, followed by 4.4% in 2013. State oil and gas company ENAP is responsible for all domestic oil and gas production, with volumes in decline. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 4,000b/d by 2013, with the country expected to pump an average 8,000b/d in 2009. Consumption is forecast to increase by up to 3% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 390,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 386,000b/d by 2013. Gas production is forecast to increase from an estimated 1.6bcm in 2007 to 1.7bcm by 2011, falling back to 1.6bcm in 2012/13, with net imports of 6.3bcm required by 2013. Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Chilean oil consumption of 25.9%, with demand rising steadily from 342,000b/d to 431,000b/d. The annual growth rate is expected to slow to 2.0% towards the end of the period. Gas production is expected to peak at around 1.8bcm in 2009/10, before declining steadily to 1.2bcm by 2018. With demand growth of 128% to 10bcm, this provides an import requirement rising from 3.9bcm to 8.8bcm during the 10-year period. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections. Chile's outright last place in BMI's updated Upstream Business Environment rating is achieved in spite of high reserves-to-
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