There are few countries like Egypt where the commercial banking sectors is already large in absolute terms, where total assets, total loans and total deposits appear set to grow at robust rates and where, by most measures, the sector is (grossly) under-developed. In Q209 BMI is making a number of changes which we hope will substantially improve the impact and value of our reports on the commercial banking sectors of various countries. Since we introduced the commercial banking reports in mid-2004, we have sought to generate insights by combining and combining information from a number of sources. We have collated data pertinent to entire commercial banking sectors that has been published by central banks, regulators and/or trade associations. We have collated basic information concerning individual market participants. We have also considered BMI's current views on the economic outlook for the country in question. Many aspects have been - and continue to be - brought together in a systematic way through our proprietary Commercial Bank Business Environment Ratings (CBBER), which facilitate cross-country comparisons. The key changes in Q209 - and what they mean for readers are as follows: Comprehensively Upgraded Database We have now incorporated as much data as we can for 2008. We have also considered the size of total bank assets, client loans, capital and client deposits in relation to the overall economy, as well as absolute terms. We have calculated figures in local currency terms, US dollar terms and euro terms. We have extended our forecast horizon out to 2013. We have also improved the coverage of historical data in this report. Our complete dataset is available for download from BMI's website. Concise Analysis Of The Sector The structural strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) of commercial banking do not usually change much from quarter-to-quarter. Nevertheless, they need to be explained in some clarity - even if only so that they may provide a context for the rest of the report. We have re-examined and (in most cases) substantially extended the SWOT analysis. Much more than previously, the SWOT analysis represents an 'at a glance' overview of what really matters for the overall commercial banking sector. Broader And Deeper International Context For a very long time before the global financial crisis reached a critical phase in mid-September 2008, commercial banking was inherently international in nature. In other words, it was a rare commercial banking sector indeed that was totally isolated from cross-border influences. However, international influences have become even more important than before as a result of the crisis. In response to this, we have extended the range of countries whose commercial banking sectors we consider each quarter by 11 - Bahrain, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kuwait, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, the UK, the US and Vietnam are now analysed. Our reports also include new Global and Regional Outlooks. Deeper Economic Analysis We include more extensive coverage of BMI's views of the economic outlook for each country. We also include a section that deals with monetary and exchange rate policy. Clearer Identification Of Protagonists We now look more closely at the mandates of central banks, regulators and trade associations. Clearer Definition Of The Universe We now include a specific definition of the universe of commercial banks in each country. In most cases, we also include a comprehensive list of identifiable institutions. (The main exception to this is the US, where we confine the list to the 50 largest banks in terms of deposits.) By defining the universe, and listing a much greater number of institutions that are active in each country, we hope that our reports are of much greater value to other researchers. New Company Profiles In Q209, we have sought to include 10 brief profiles of leading banks in each of the countries that we cover. We will add additional profiles in coming months. Wherever possible, we have tried to quantify the total assets, client loans, bond portfolio, client deposits and capital of each institution. Eventually, it should be possible for us to profile most - or indeed all - of the banks that are active in the countries that we follow. Naturally, we will continue to improve the structure and content of the reports over time. The extended Commercial Banking SWOT Analysis below summarises what we see as the key issues in this report.
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