New Report: South Africa mobile customers decline due to compulsory SIM registration

Jan. 2, 2010 - PRLog -- BMI's Q110 update on the South African telecommunications market contains newly revised and extended forecasts for the country's fixed-line, broadband and mobile telephony markets. Our forecasts, which extend to the end of 2014, incorporate second and third quarter data published by South Africa's two largest mobile operators, Vodacom and MTN. At the end of September 2009, we estimate that South Africa had a mobile customer base of just over 51.7mn. This was equivalent to a penetration rate of 105.5%. Our calculations show that the mobile customer base grew by 5.6% in the first six months of 2009, before shrinking by 2.7% in the third quarter of the year. Both Vodacom and MTN reported a significant loss of customers in the three months to September 30. The reason for these losses appears to be the implementation of RICA (Regulation of Interception of Communications and Provision of Communication-Related information Act) on August 1 2009. The Act requires mobile operators MTN, Vodacom and Cell C, as well as other service providers such as Nashua Mobile, Autopage and Virgin Mobile South Africa, to register the identities, physical address and cellular phone numbers of new and existing customers on secure databases. The act is intended to assist law enforcement agencies with tracing criminals when mobile phones are used to commit major crimes. However, the act has been described by some as too onerous for many existing prepaid users, making them reluctant to comply. BMI believes that, as a result of the implementation of compulsory SIM registration, all of South Africa's mobile service providers experienced a fall in customer numbers in Q309. In devising our latest forecast for the sector, we have factored in a further drop in mobile customer numbers in Q409. By the end of 2009, we estimate that there were around 50.47mn mobile telephony customers in South Africa. This figure reflects just 0.3% growth for the year as a whole. Other recent developments in South Africa's telecoms market, which have implications for the future development of the sector, include the decision by Vodacom and MTN, announced in October, to lower their mobile termination rates. The announcement followed the intervention of South Africa's politicians and others, who urged the mobile networks to cut their mobile termination rates to help make communications more affordable. MTN and Vodacom proposed an immediate reduction of approximately 19% of the blended wholesale interconnect tariffs, with further reductions y-o-y for the following three years. South Africa has risen from sixth to third position in BMI's latest set of Business Environment Rankings for Africa. The stronger overall score reflects an improved performance in both the Telecoms Market and Country Risk categories.

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Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- South Africa Wireline SWOT
- South Africa Mobile SWOT
- South Africa Political SWOT
- South Africa Economic SWOT
- South Africa Business Environment SWOT
- Business Environment
- Africa
- South Africa
Table: Regional Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Market Data Analysis
- Mobile
Table: South Africa Wireless Market, Q309
- Subscriber Divisions
- ARPU
- 3G
- HSDPA And HSUPA
- Mobile Contract Wins
Table - Mobile Contract Wins
- Mobile Content
- Regional Outlook
- Country Outlook
- Mobile TV
- Mobile Banking
- Value-Added Services Timeline
Table - Selected VAS Services
- Mobile Operator Data
Table: South Africa Mobile Market Overview Numbers (mn)
Table: Vodacom*
- MTN*
Table: Cell C
- Fixed Line
Table: Telkom Fixed Telephony Access Lines ('000)
Table: Telkom Fixed Telephony Access Lines ('000)
- Second National Operator
- Fibre Network Development
- Internet
- Telkom ADSL
Table: Telkom Internet Customers ('000)
- WiMAX
- Corporate Data Services
- Wireline Contract Wins
Table - Wireline Contract Wins
- Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
- South Africa: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
- Legislation And Market Liberalisation
- Market Development
- Regulatory Developments
- Competitive Landscape
- Key Players
Table: Key Players: South Africa Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators
- Company Monitor
- Ericsson Net Sales By Geographic Area
- Ericsson Net Sales By Geographic Area
- Ericsson's Position In The Global Handset Market, Unit Sales (mn)
Table: Ericsson Recent Contract Wins In MEA
- Operator Profiles
- Telkom
- Vodacom
- MTN
- Cell C
- Appendix:
- Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
- Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
- Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
- Broadband
Table: Regional Internet Use Penetration Overview
- Country Snapshot: South Africa Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urb

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