PRLog (Press Release) -
Jan 02, 2010 -
BMI's 2010 report on Lithuania's telecoms market contains updated and extended forecasts that predict how the country's fixed-line, internet, broadband and mobile sectors will develop through to the end of 2014. Our new forecasts reflect Q309 data published by Lithuania's fixed-line incumbent operator TEO LT as well as Q209 data for the country's three mobile operators, Omnitel (which is wholly owned by Nordic carrier TeliaSonera)
, privately owned Bité Lithuania and Tele2 Lithuania, the Lithuanian arm of Swedish carrier Tele2 AB. According to data provided by Lithuania's mobile operators and its telecoms regulator, the Communications Regulatory Authority of the Republic of Lithuania (RRT), the country's mobile customer base shrank by 1.1% in the first quarter of 2009 and by 0.6% in the second quarter. All three of Lithuania's mobile operators reported a loss of customers in both Q109 and Q209. Although the operators have not elaborated on the reason for their loss of customers, we suspect that it reflects the impact of economic recession on the sector. The country's economic slowdown has led to a decrease in the frequency with which prepaid customers use their mobile phones, resulting in an increasing number of customers falling into the 'inactive' customer category. Meanwhile, economic recession appears to have had a negative impact on Lithuania's broadband subscriber market. After expanding by 16.3% in 2008, the number of fixed broadband internet subscriptions rose by just 3.3% in H109. Although DSL subscriptions account for the single largest source of fixed broadband subscriptions, their share of the market has been falling. Other technologies have been supplanting DSL in recent quarters as the main drivers of broadband subscriber growth in Lithuania. Much of the recent growth comes from broadband connections based on fibre-to-the-
home (FTTH) and fibre-to-the-
building (FTTB) technology. We predict that fibre will drive much of the growth in Lithuania's broadband sector over the next few years. However, growth in the number of fixed broadband services will slow as they face competition from mobile broadband alternatives. The latest regulatory figures suggest that there were almost 464,000 active 3G (UMTS) subscribers in Lithuania as of June 2009. We estimate that this figure had risen to 576,000 by the end of 2009, equivalent to nearly 12% of the mobile subscriber base. Although the number of broadband subscribers continues to rise, the latest figures show that Lithuania's fixed-line market has now entered a period of accelerated decline. Our new fixed line forecast for the country anticipates this trend continuing over the next five years. Lithuania sits in fifth position in BMI's Business Environment Ratings for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The country scores above the regional average in all the categories surveyed by BMI.
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