PRLog (Press Release) -
Dec 31, 2009 -
This report differs from its predecessors in several respects. In our analysis of competitive conditions, we provide a much more comprehensive ranking of insurance companies in the major segments from the point of view of the organisation that is providing the data (in practice almost always the national insurance regulator or the national insurance trade association)
. In Brazil, for instance, the three largest auto insurance providers in the first eight months of 2009 - in terms of gross written premiums - were Porto Seguro Cia de Seguros Gerais, Bradesco Auto/Re Companhia de Seguros, and Sul América Cia Nacional de Seguros, with 14.3%, 12.1% and 8.1% market share respectively. Over time, we hope to derive insights from observing how market shares change. We emphasise though, that a decline in share of Gross Written Premiums is not automatically a bad thing and is often the result of a deliberate corporate decision to focus on more profitable business lines. Writing in November 2009, we have been able to ensure that the report includes actual data for 2008. The Superintendency of Private Insurance (SUSEP), the regulator, identifies three life lines in its data: VGBL products, Retirement savings schemes (of which PGBL products are an important subset) and capitalisation schemes. We find that life premiums rose to BRL40,808mn in 2008 from BRL35,966mn in 2007. Our figures for non-life insurance include the Consolidated Insurance figures published by SUSEPexcept for premiums for VGBL products, which are a subset of personal lines which belongs to the life segment. Our figures also include health insurance premiums as disclosed by the ASN. Under this approach, we find that non-life premiums rose from BRL67,971mn in 2005 to BRL76,786mn in 2006 to BRL89,970mn in 2007 to BRL103,340mn in 2008. We have generally been able to use data that has been published over the course of 2009 to adjust our forecasts for the year as a whole. We are looking for total premiums in 2009 of BRL167,834mn. This includes non-life premiums of BRL127,062mn and life premiums of BRL40,772mn.We have also extended the forecasts out to 2014. In 2014, the corresponding figures should be total premiums of BRL329,354mn, with non-life premiums of BRL239,498mn and life premiums of BRL89,857mn. In terms of the key drivers that underpin our forecasts, we are looking for non-life penetration to rise from 4.21% in 2009 to 5.30% in 2014, and for life density to rise from US$102 to US$262. BMI's proprietary Insurance Business Environment Rating (IBER) for Brazil is 67.4. This quarter, we include a discussion of developments within regional markets - on the basis of results published by major cross-border companies in relation to Q209 or Q309 and the latest information provided by regulators and/or trade associations. Unsurprisingly, the first nine months of 2009 were an excellent period for Spain's MAPFRE, arguably the leading cross-border insurance group in Latin America. On 6 October 2009, MAPFRE signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Banco do Brasil to establish a strategic alliance in the personal, property and motor lines in Brazil.
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