BMI's latest update on the Greek telecoms market contains newly revised forecasts for the country's fixed-line, broadband and mobile telephony markets. Our new forecasts are based on the latest data published by the Greek telecoms regulator, the National Commission for Telecommunications and Posts (EETT), and by the country's three mobile network operators, Cosmote, the mobile arm of Greek incumbent telecoms company OTE, Vodafone Greece and WIND Hellas. The latest figures for the fixed-line sector show that there were just over 6mn fixed lines in Greece at the end of 2008, including unbundled local loops. During 2008, the number of unbundled local loops increased by over 117% to surpass 672,000. Leading alternative operators such as FORTHnet, Tellas and Hellas Online (HOL) have been able to benefit from the unbundling process. Growth in the number of dual-play services offered by these operators has helped to buoy the otherwise shrinking fixed-line market. Overall, the number of fixed lines fell by 1.7% during the year, suggesting the sector has entered a period of more rapid decline. Greece's fixed-line incumbent OTE continues to report much greater fixed-line losses than the sector as a whole. Meanwhile, according to the regulator, there were just over 1.5mn broadband connections at the end of 2008. Based on growth of almost 48% for the year, the Greek broadband penetration rate had risen to 13.4% by the end of 2008, up from 9.1% a year earlier. BMI predicts that the broadband market will grow by just over 27% in 2009, enabling the penetration rate to rise to 17.0%. Although the broadband market continues to be dominated by ADSL, WiMAX and FTTx are becoming increasingly prominent. In addition to revising our forecasts for the fixed-line, broadband and mobile markets, we have extended the Market Data sections of the report. In particular, this quarter sees a more in-depth analysis of the country's fixed-line and internet sectors. For example, in our analysis of the Greek broadband market, we include revised market share data, new sections on WiMAX, FTTH and IPTV services, and a table which summarises recent contract wins in the wireline sector. Recent developments in the Greek wireline market include the launch of IPTV services by OTE and HOL - in February and March 2009, respectively - and HOL's official launch, in February 2009, of FTTB services in Athens and Thessaloniki. Meanwhile in March, it was announced that OTE had agreed to sell its Macedonian mobile business Cosmofon to Slovenia's Telekom Slovenije. OTE previously agreed to sell Cosmofon for regulatory reasons after Deutsche Telekom bought a 25% stake in the Greek company in 2008. Greece has seen a significant fall in BMI's latest set of Business Environment Rankings for Western Europe, dropping to 10th from fourth position. The main reason for the fall is the considerably weaker score which Greece receives in the telecoms market category.
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