PRLog (Press Release) -
Dec 22, 2009 -
The Peruvian market is setting itself up for increased competition in 2009, with a new mobile operator set to be licensed and mobile number portability (MNP) to be implemented in the fourth quarter of the year. This will bring competition to the market which is an effective duopoly between Telefó
nica's Movistar and América Móvil's Claro. With the high growth rate exhibited in Peru, it could be argued that the strong competition between these two Latin American giants has been sufficient in boosting mobile subscriptions in Peru with growth around 60% in 2006 and 2007, but our estimate of 2008's growth sees it fall below 40%. The market's third mobile operator Nextel has a coverage area and target market that is much more limited preventing it from being a real competitor to Movistar and Claro. A new operator will have to contend with the heavy resistance it is likely to see from the existing two operators. We have made marginal adjustments to our mobile forecasts as growth appears to have slowed faster than we originally thought. The adjustments are minimal and we still believe the mobile market passed the 60% penetration barrier by the end of 2008. While we do expect growth to remain strong it seems the days of adding 15-20 percentage points to the penetration rate are now over and the market will creep a little slower to pass 90% penetration in 2012 and just passing 93% in 2013. Our 3G forecasts meanwhile remain unchanged through a lack of data from the country's sole 3G operator, Claro, as well as the lack of launches from either of the other two operators in the market. Movistar had said it would launch before the end of 2008 but no announcement has been forthcoming. Nextel has confirmed its plans to offer 3G services over a CDMA2000 network in May 2009. Given the growing importance of 3G services and the value-added content this will bring to Peru, BMI has added a mobile content section to our mobile data analysis. This market is very much in its nascent phase in Peru and as yet there are a limited number of applications in the market. SMS remains the predominant value added service (VAS) in Peru. Reflecting the youthful subscriber bases of the major operators most value-added content seems to be focused on mobile gaming and music downloads, these are available on both Movistar and Claro's networks as the operators' parent companies expand their offerings across the rest of Latin America to Peru. Offering 3G has also enabled Claro to offer mobile broadband with a PCMCIA card and USB 'dongle', both from Huawei, available to enable PCs and laptops to connect to the network. As we have extended our coverage of the Peruvian mobile market with the addition of new content, the fixed-line and broadband forecasts and data analysis have been left untouched in this update with a full, in depth revision to be included in the Q309 report.
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