Recently released market study: Argentina Autos Report Q1 2010

Dec. 21, 2009 - PRLog -- Argentina's autos industry is experiencing knock-on effects of the global economic crisis. As  BMI explains in its Q09 Argentina Autos Report, the decline in the export sector is having a dramatic impact, which has prompted us to revise down our real GDP growth forecast for 2009 to -1.0% compared with the 0.6% growth that we expected earlier. With most banks now reluctant to approve loans, new vehicle registrations tumbled by almost 35% y-o-y to 66,794 units in 2M09, according to estimates from the Asociación de Fábricas de Automotores de Argentina (Adefa).  BMI believes that private consumption growth will be impeded as a result of declining real wages and restricted access to credit. As such, we have limited our vehicle sales forecast at 500,000 units, down by 18-20% by the end of 2009 compared with 2008. An annual contraction of 0.9% in economic growth will keep vehicle sales even lower, falling by nearly 3.5% y-o-y in 2010 after which it may bounce back with a robust 4% growth in 2011. Falling domestic demand is likely to be aggravated by a fall in export volumes to 285,316 units this year, down from close to 351,900 units in 2008. We believe this will give existing carmakers reason to delay expansion plans, at least in the short to medium term.  Honda Motor has postponed construction on a vehicle and engine assembly plant until mid-2010 and  Ford Motor has reportedly reduced production from 18,319 units in Q108 to 10,625 units in Q109 in order to avoid inventory accumulation. We forecast that announcements like these will result in nearly 27-30% lower annual production volumes of 438,500 units for 2009. Recovery in Argentina is likely to be slower than in most markets, as we expect 2008 production levels to be reached no sooner than 2013. Argentina has decreased by 1.3 points to 59.7 in  BMI's Business Environment Ratings for the industry in Latin America, primarily due to a significant reduction in Limits of Potential Returns in the industry. Nevertheless, the market remains an attractive platform for carmakers seeking to tap long-term growth in the region.  Toyota Motor, a relatively new participant in the country, now ranks fifth in terms of output, ahead of  Volkswagen (VW),  Mercedes-Benz, and  Fiat. In terms of sales, VW,  General Motors (GM), and Ford are the top three.

Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Argentina Autos Industry SWOT
- Argentina Political SWOT
- Argentina Economic SWOT
- Argentina Business Environment SWOT
- Latin America Regional Overview
- Increasing Trade Links With China
- Business Environment Ratings
Table: Latin America Autos Business Environment Ratings
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Production And Sales
Table: Argentina’s Autos Sector - Production, 2007-2014
Table: Argentina’s Autos Sector - Sales, 2007-2014
Table: Argentina’s Autos Sector - Trade, Imports And Exports, 2007-2014
- Economic Contribution
Table: Argentina’s Auto’s Sector Economic Contribution, 2006-2013
- Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Table: Argentina - Economic Activity, 2006-2013
- Competitive Landscape
- Market Overview
Table: Argentina - Vehicle Production, Jan-Sept 2009 (Units)
Table: Argentina - Vehicle Sales, Jan-Sept 2009
- Industry Developments
- Investments
- Company Developments
- New Investment
- Commercial Vehicles
Table: Argentina’s Commercial Vehicle Market, 2001-2008 (CBUs)
Table: Argentina’s Commercial Vehicle Production, 2001-2008 (CBUs)
- Light Commercial Vehicles
Table: Argentina’s Light Commercial Vehicle Sales, Jan-Sept 2009
Table: Argentina’s Light Commercial Vehicle Production, Jan-Sept 2009
- Heavy Commercial Vehicles
- Heavy Vehicle Sales, 2008
Table: Argentina’s Heavy Commercial Vehicle Production By Manufacturer, 2001-2008 (CBUs)
- Buses
Table: Argentina’s Bus Sales, 2006-2008
Table: Argentina’s Bus Production By Manufacturer, 2000-2008 (CBUs)
- Suppliers
- Company Monitor
- Ford Motor South America Regional Overview
- Ford Regional SWOT
- Company Profiles
- Volkswagen
- General Motors
- Peugeot Citroën Argentina
- Renault
- Country Snapshot: Argentina Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education & Healthcare
Table: Education
Table: Life Expectancy, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market & Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 1995-2001
- BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Automobile Industry
- Sources


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