Agriculture in the Ukraine, once the bread basket of Europe, has fallen on sorry times since the collapse of the Soviet Union and independence in 1991. Now, however, it looks like a recovery may be under way. In BMI's new Ukraine Agribusiness Report for Q109, we examine how agriculture in Ukraine can retrieve its former status. After government subsidies and guaranteed markets fell along with the Soviet Union, Ukraine's agriculture went into a long decline through the 1990s. By the end of the decade, production volumes had collapsed, agricultural GDP fallen by half and more than 2mn jobs had been lost in rural areas. Since 2000, however, the sector's prospects have improved and a nascent recovery has begun. This has been driven by the development of a small number of larger, profitable operators, though production in most sectors is still dominated by inefficient, loss-making farms. The emergence of a new class of efficient farms can most clearly be seen in the poultry sector, which we forecast to grow by 63.3% to 2012. There, two large, profitable firms account for more than 70% of production. We also expect grain production to retake lost ground over the medium term, and, by the end of our forecast period in 2012, we expect Ukraine to be firmly established among the world's top wheat exporters. With yields far below the potential of Ukraine's fertile soil and much arable land lying fallow, there is plenty of room for production growth. There are, however, a number of challenges that must be met if this recovery is to continue. Recent government interference in the form of export quotas on grain have starved the industry of much-needed funds for investment. A ban on the sale of agricultural land has hampered the expansion of profitable farms, forcing them to lease land instead of owning it outright. This has served to discourage investment in land improvement. A drain of workers from rural areas into the cities also threatens to derail the recovery of the agricultural sector. Ukraine's former agricultural success may also come back to haunt it if measures to preserve the environment are not taken. The intensive agriculture introduced to Ukraine when it was part of the Soviet Union and the rapid expansion of area under agricultural harvest have put pressure on natural resources. This has led to falls in the fertility of the soil and declines in water retention. As agriculture in the Ukraine redevelops, more attention will have to be paid to the environment if the recovery is to be sustainable.
Report Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Ukraine Agricultural SWOT
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Ukraine Dairy Outlook
Table: Ukraine Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Ukraine Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Ukraine Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Ukraine Milk Production & Consumption
Table: Ukraine Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Ukraine Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
- Ukraine Grains Outlook
- Ukraine Grains Outlook
Table: Ukraine Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Ukraine Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Ukraine Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Ukraine Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Ukraine Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Ukraine Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
- Ukraine Livestock Outlook
- Ukraine Livestock Outlook
Table: Ukraine Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Ukraine Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Ukraine Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Ukraine Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Ukraine Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: Ukraine Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
- Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
- Commodity Price Analysis
- Corn
Table: Corn
- Rice
Table: Rice
- Soy
Table: Soybean
- Wheat
Table: Wheat
- Softs Update
- Cocoa
Table: Cocoa
- Coffee
Table: Coffee
- Milk
Table: Milk
- Sugar
Table: Sugar
- Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
- Industry Forecast Scenario - Food
- Ukraine Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013
- Confectionery
- Ukraine Confectionery Value/Volume Sales (UAHmn, unless otherwise stated) -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013
- Trade
- Ukraine Food, Drink & Tobacco Trade Indicators (US$mn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013
- Industry Forecast Scenario - Retail
- Ukraine Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format (UAHbn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013
- Ukraine Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) -- Historical Data & Forecasts
- Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Ukraine - Economic Activity
- BMI Forecast Modelling
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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