The new BMI Poland Retail report predicts that the country's total retail sales will increase by more than 60% in dollar terms by 2013, growing from US$187.4bn in 2007 to US$301.6bn. Rising disposable incomes, consumers seeking the choice and low prices offered by foreign and domestic chains, and the increase in car ownership are key factors behind retail market expansion. EU membership gained in 2004 and increasing amounts of foreign direct investment (FDI) have allowed retailers to make significant inroads into the market, contributing to forecast annual retail sales growth of 10.7%. Poland's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) was US$421.7bn in 2007. Average annual GDP growth of 3.7% is predicted by BMI to 2013. Although the population is forecast to decrease slightly, from 38.0mn in 2007 to an estimated 37.9mn by 2013, GDP per capita is predicted to rise by more than 43% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$15,918. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$7,066 in 2007 to US$11,400 by 2013. With 38mn consumers, Poland represents the biggest market among the new EU countries. The population is also one of the most youthful in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), with more than 37% of all citizens aged between 20 and 44, according to UN data. This proportion is forecast to rise to more than 38% by 2010, representing a key element of future retail spending. In November 2008, according to the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS), the biggest increase in sales (38.7%) came from retailers selling clothes and footwear. Retailers selling furniture, radio and television equipment and household appliances recorded an increase of 28.8%. Other groups recording high sales were retailers of press and books (20.9%), and of pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and orthopaedic equipment (15.8%). This trend, for increased spending on non-food, non-essential items, is a reflection of the maturing of the Polish retail market as it begins to track more closely Western European purchasing trends. Teenagers and young adults in particular are driving fashion sales in Poland, with the clothing market worth US$12.72bn, 8.5% of the total retail market, in 2006 (the last year for which detailed breakdown figures are available), according to GUS. Retail sales for BMI's universe of CEE countries in 2007 amounted to an estimated US$1.02bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI's macroeconomic database, amounts to US$1.48bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together in 2007 accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to reach almost 83% by 2013. For Poland, the estimated 2007 market share of 18.4% is expected to fall to 17.1% by 2013.
Report Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Poland Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Poland Political SWOT
- Poland Economic SWOT
- Poland Business Environment SWOT
- Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
- Business Environment
- Central And Eastern Europe Region
Table: CEE Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Poland’
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
Table: Retail Sales By Key Segment, 2009e
- Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Poland Economic Activity, 2005-2014
- Regional Retail Outlook
Table: Regional Retail Trends, 2007-2014
Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share, 2007-2014
- Regional Retail Trends
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Poland Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
- Market Overview
Table: Private Label Share By Company, 2005-2006
- Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Poland MGR Sales By Format (US$bn), 2006-2014
Table: Poland Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008 And 2018
- Industry Developments
- Consumer Electronics
- Poland Consumer Electronics SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2006-2013
- Industry Developments
- Automotives
- Poland Automotives Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Poland Autos Sector - Production And Sales Historical Data And Forecasts, 2006-2013
- Trade
Table: Poland Autos Sector - Trade Historical Data And Forecasts, 2006-2013
- Economic Contribution
Table: Poland Autos Sector - Economic Contribution Historical Data And Forecasts, 2005-2011
Table: Job Creation In Polish Autos Supply Industry
- Country Snapshot: Poland Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
- BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources
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