The new BMI Hungary Retail report predicts that the country's total retail sales will increase almost 35% by 2013, growing from US$34.0bn in 2007 to US$46.1bn by 2013. Increased economic prosperity (despite the current financial crisis), easier access to credit, and the demand for premium products are key factors behind retail market expansion, contributing to forecast annual retail sales growth of 7.2%. Hungary's nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was US$140bn in 2007. Average annual GDP growth of 1.2% is predicted by BMI to 2013. Although the population is forecast to decrease slightly, from 10.0mn in 2007 to an estimated 9.9mn by 2013, GDP per capita is predicted to rise more than 25% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$17,468. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$8,539 in 2007 to US$11,000 by 2013. The demand for premium products and convenience are the driving factors behind value growth across the Hungarian retail industry, with consumers increasingly viewing their purchases as status symbols. Yet, local consumption patterns vary significantly according to income, with the average wage of US$18,624 being much lower than professional salaries. The government's austerity programme, which has reduced consumer expenditure, also means that many consumers are extremely price-conscious. However, Hungary's median population age has been rising steadily, with the proportion of those aged between 20 and 44 - a key sector for retail sales - forecast to rise from 35.3% of the total population in 2005 to 35.6% in 2010 and to 36.1% by 2015. Retail sub-sectors that are likely to see steady growth over the forecast period include furniture & household goods, worth US$7bn in 2007, according to data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH). BMI forecasts sales in this sector rising to US$9.5bn by 2013. Sales of books and newspapers amounted to US$3.8bn in 2007, and should increase to US$5.1bn by the end of the forecast period; while sales of textiles, clothing & footwear, estimated at US$2.2bn, are predicted to grow to US$3.0bn by 2013. Property experts forecast that around 450,000 square metres of shopping centre space will be added to the Hungarian market between 2009 and 2012. Retail sales for the BMI universe of CEE countries in 2007 amounted to an estimated US$1,021bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI's macroeconomic database, amounts to US$1,481bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together in 2007 accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to reach almost 83% by 2013. For Hungary, the estimated 2007 market share of 3.3% is expected to fall to 2.6% by 2013.
Report Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Hungary Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Hungary Political SWOT
- Hungary Economic SWOT
- Hungary Business Environment SWOT
- Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
- Business Environment
- Central And Eastern Europe Region
Table: CEE Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Hungary’
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
Table: Retail Sales By Segment, 2009e
- Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Hungary Economic Activity, 2005-2014
- Regional Retail Outlook
Table: Regional Retail Trends, 2007-2014
Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share, 2007-2014
- Regional Retail Trends
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Hungary Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
- Market Overview
Table: Private Label Market Share By MGR Operators As % Of Total, 2005-2006
- Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: MGR Sales By Format, Historical Data And Forecasts (US$bn)
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2008 And 2018
- Industry Developments
- Consumer Electronics
- Hungary Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
- Market Overview
- Computers
Table: Hungary PC Sales, 2006-2013
- Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview , 2006-2013
- Industry Developments
- Automotives
- Hungary Automotives Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Hungary Autos Production, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2005-2014
Table: Hungary Autos Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2005-2014
- Trade
Table: Hungary Autos Trade, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2005-2014
- Economic Contribution
Table: Hungary Autos Sector - Economic Contribution, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2003-2011
- Country Snapshot: Hungary Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market aND Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
- BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources
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