Study: Bulgaria Road Freight Will Grow By An Annual Average Of 6.6% In The 2009-2013 Period

PRLog (Press Release) - Dec 18, 2009 -
In July 2008, deputy Prime Minister Meglena Plugchieva said Bulgaria was prepared to carry out 10 road projects, covering the estimated cost of EUR88.4mn (US$138.9mn) out of its own funds. Earlier in the year, the European Union had frozen its co-financing agreement for the projects over what it said were irregularities in the way the money was being spent. EU funding had been coming from the PHARE, SAPARD, and ISPA programmes, and was suspended until Bulgaria was able to show it had the capacity to spend the money according to programme guidelines. Plugchieva said, however, that 'work on these projects will not stop and they will be completed with national financing if PHARE funds need to be cancelled. These projects are extremely important and we will not let them fail.' Most of the highways concerned are designed to improve road links with neighbours Greece and Romania. In fact, taking into account the gradual improvement of the highway system, in  BMI's newly-released  Bulgaria Freight Transport 2009 report, we conclude that freight carried by road will grow by an annual average of 6.6% in the 2009-2013 period. A number of factors underpin this projection. We believe that tonne/kms will now start to increase, driven by improvements in both GDP and trade volumes, as the rate of decline of average length of haul slows significantly or stops. Despite the subsequent funding issues, Bulgaria's EU accession on January 1 2007 was clearly supportive, helping link the country closer to continental road networks. Public-private partnership (PPP) models will help unlock additional investment funds for motorway construction. Work has begun on a second US$318mn bridge over the Danube River, linking the country's port of Vidin with Romania's Calafat by mid-2010. And the outlook for Bulgarian economic growth is encouraging, with GDP set to expand by an annual average of 5.5% over the next five years. Looking across all freight transport modes, we now project airfreight to grow at the strongest pace (7.6% per annum), followed by oil and gas pipelines (7.8%), inland waterways freight traffic (7.1%), road haulage (6.6%), maritime freight (6.6%) and rail (6.4%). Taken together all freight, measured in million tonne-km (mntkm) will grow by an annual average of 6.7% per annum during 2009-2013, ahead of GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$10.6bn in nominal terms by 2013, representing 14.4% of Bulgaria's GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 202,700 people, or 7.5% of the labour force, in 2006. Against the backdrop of a falling population, we see that figure reducing holding roughly steady to 2012.

Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Bulgaria’s Freight Transport Industry SWOT
- Bulgaria Political SWOT
- Bulgaria Economic SWOT
- Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
- Freight Transport Business Environment
Table: Europe Freight Transport Business Environment Ratings
- Bulgaria’s Freight Transport Sector
- Bulgaria Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
- Transport Intensity Index
- Political Risk Summary
- Economic Risk Summary
- Business Environment Risk Summary
- Legal Code/Corruption
- Labour Force
- Industry Trends And Developments
- Road
- Rail
- Air
- Sea
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q108-Q409 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Prices, 2007-2014 (US$/bbl)
- Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity, 2006-2014
- Transport Outlook
Table: Bulgaria’s Transport And Communications Sector, 2006-2014
Table: Freight Carried, Domestic And International, 2006-2014
- Trade Environment
Table: Value Of Imports By Category, 2006-2014 (US$mn)
Table: Value Of Exports By Category, 2006-2014 (US$mn)
Table: Bulgaria’s Top Export Destinations, 2002-2006 (US$mn)
Table: Bulgaria’s Export Trade, 2003-2006 (% growth y-o-y)
Table: Bulgaria’s Import Trade, 2001-2006 (% growth y-o-y)
Table: Bulgaria’s Top Import Sources, 2002-2006 (US$mn)
- Market Overview
- Multi-Modal
- Competitive Landscape
- Road
- Infrastructure
- Competitive Landscape
- Rail
- Infrastructure
- Competitive Landscape
- Company Profile: Bulgarian State Railways (BDZ) EAD
- Air
- Infrastructure
- Competitive Landscape
- Water
- Infrastructure
- Maritime Competitive Landscape
- Company Profile: Navigation Maritime Bulgare (Navibulgar)
- Pipelines
- Competitive Landscape
- Country Snapshot: Bulgaria Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
- BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Transport Industry
- Sources

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