Newly published market report: Mexico Real Estate Report Q1 2010

Dec. 15, 2009 - PRLog -- More so than many other Latin American countries, Mexico's economic fortunes are closely tied to those of the US. It is no surprise therefore that Mexico's economy has had a rough ride of late. Our latest forecast is for real GDP growth to contract by 1.3% over 2009. In brief, industrial production has been hit hard, consumer confidence has evaporated and retail sales are poor. Lower private investment levels in Mexico are likely to be in evidence throughout 2009, and even public spending now appears under threat from tighter credit conditions and the persistence of global risk aversion. These broader macroeconomic issues have the capacity to significantly affect Mexico's real estate market. So far, however, it appears that the market has held up better than other parts of the economy. A recent report by Knight Frank notes that the average vacancy rate in Mexico City is around 5.8% in certain parts of the city. Generally speaking, the market for commercial real estate is healthy, mirroring the low vacancy rates of the real estate market overall. Vacancy rates will rise gradually over the short to medium term, however, suggesting more competitive conditions in coming times. The market for industrial real estate (warehousing, logistics, etc.) is, by contrast, taking a battering. In other regional countries the market for industrial real estate is holding up considerably better by contrast. An assessment of the health of the residential real estate market is not so easily made. However, we expect that the performance of this market segment is comparable with the non-industrial commercial sector. According to some of the data available to us, it appears that office space in Mexico City (in early 2009) cost around US$30.00, or EUR21.30, per square meter per year to rent. This represents a fall in rental prices of 6.3% year-on-year (y-o-y). As yet, we have been unable to find suitable data on the housing market in Mexico. Housing prices generally firmed in major markets in Latin America. Over the coming months, the key issues to watch will likely be, first, the continued carnage in Mexico's industrial real estate sector. Second, the coming online of a significant amount of new space, which will have the effect of driving up vacancy rates. Third, whether the broader economic conditions cause developers to delay projects, as is currently expected.

Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
- Key Features Of This Report
- SWOT Analysis
- Mexico Real Estate/Construction SWOT
- Mexico Economic SWOT
- Mexico Business Environment SWOT
- Real Estate Market Overview
- Key Projects
- Construction Overview
- New And Ongoing Projects
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects
- Real Estate Investment Trusts
Table: FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Real Estate Indices Total Returns (%, US dollar terms)
Table: US REITs - Total Returns (%, US dollar terms)
- Industry Finance Outlook
- Global Outlook
- Mexican Monetary Policy
Table: Mexico - Monetary Policy, 2007-2014
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Real Estate Forecasts
Table: Latin America Housing Prices At A Glance
Table: Office Rents In Latin America
Table: Current And Forecast Office Rents, 2008-2014 (US$ per square metre per month)
- Mexican Construction Industry
Table: Mexico Infrastructure And Construction Sector, 2008-2014
- Mexico’s Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Mexico - Economic Activity, 2006-2014
- Business Environment
- Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Ratings
Table: Latin America Business Environment Ratings
- Mexico’s RECBER
- Project Finance Ratings
Table: Design And Construction Rating
Table: Commissioning And Operating Rating
Table: Overall Project Finance Rating
- Mexico’s Business Environment
Table: BMI’s Business And Operational Risk Ratings
Table: BMI’s Legal Framework Ratings
Table: FDI Inflows To Latin America, 2006-2008
Table: Mexico’s Top Export Destinations, 2001-2008
Table: BMI’s Trade Ratings
- Company Monitor
- Cemex
- Corporación Moctezuma
- Desarrolladora Homex SA
- DINE SAB
- Empresas ICA
- Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua
- Urbi Desarrollos Urbanos SA
- BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Construction Industry
- Bank Lending
- Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
- Project Finance Ratings Indicators
Table: Design And Construction Phase
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Commercial Construction
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Energy And Utilities
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Transport
- Sources


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