China Vinyls Demand (Million Tons) 2000-2020
Detailed analysis and forecasts of the major economic and market trends, both historic and forecast, affecting the vinyls markets in all the major regions of the world have been undertaken. The research includes VCM and EDC demand and production forecasts for major regions of the world. Demand, production and trade analysis for VCM and EDC for the major markets within each region is also provided. Market share analysis of major vinyls producers by region is also included in this comprehensive report covering all the major parameters.
Low per Capita PVC Consumption and Rapid Growth in Developing Economies will drive the Global Vinyls Demand
Low per capita consumption of vinyls and greater economic development in the fast growing developing countries of China, India and Brazil are driving the global demand for vinyls in construction applications. Pipes & tubes and profiles account for the bulk of the end use applications of vinyls, and form the bulk of the vinyls demand from construction applications, the major end-use industry for vinyls.
A significant number of the population in these developing countries lack basic infrastructure including housing, potable water and sanitation facilities and will provide significant upside for the growth in vinyls demand in these countries. According to Global Markets Direct forecasts, these countries will have some of the largest demand growth rates in the world.
Historically, Chinese vinyls demand was driven by exports of PVC products, but the slowdown in the major export markets of North America and Europe has reduced Chinese exports by more than 40% in 2008. However, China has undertaken massive construction projects in the less developed interior parts of the country which will drive the vinyls markets in the country.
In Brazil and India, large scale housing and municipal projects are driving the demand for vinyls products. Most of vinyls products in these countries are in the forms of pipes and profiles, which are predominantly used in the construction sector.
Vinyls Demand Will Be Stagnant In Developed Markets of North America and Europe
Over 30% of the global VCM demand and over 45% of the EDC demand comes from the developed markets of North America and Europe. The absence of capacity additions in the downstream processing sectors, competition from cheap imports and the slowdown in construction and industrial activities have led to stagnation and decline in demand from these regions.
North America accounted for 15% of the global VCM demand and 27% of the global EDC in 2008, and according to Global Markets Direct estimates, it will account for only 10% of the global VCM and 18% of global EDC demand in 2020. The collapse of the construction industry in the US is the main reason for the decline in vinyls demand in North America.
Europe accounted for 18% of the global VCM demand and 20% of the global EDC demand in 2008. According to Global Markets Direct estimates, this will reduce to 12% of the global VCM demand and 17% of the global EDC demand in 2020. The slowdown in the large industrial economies of Western
Europe was the main reason for demand stagnation.
Chinese Demand Will Be the Major Driver for Global PVC Market
China will be the principal driver of global vinyls demand until 2020. Rapid increase in downstream capacity additions, primarily geared towards export markets, and the fast growth of the domestic construction industry were the main drivers of vinyls demand in China. The Chinese government is currently undertaking a $600 billion investment program to develop infrastructure in interior China, which will be the main driver of vinyls demand in the future. China has the world’s largest vinyls capacity using acetylene feedstock and half of the future capacity additions will also be based on acetylene feedstock. Acetylene prices are linked to coal prices and insulate most of the Chinese vinyls producers from the large volatility in the international crude oil prices. China has some of the largest reserve of coal in the world and the need to reduce the dependence on imported crude oil for feedstock is driving the vinyls capacity additions using acetylene as a feedstock.
Even with these large capacity additions coming up in the country, China will continue to be the largest importer of vinyls in the world. The Chinese vinyls demand will grow by more than 10% annually and will account for 18% of the global EDC demand and 34% of the global VCM demand in 2020.
Large Scale Constructions in Iran and Saudi Arabia Will Drive the Vinyls Demand in the Middle East Region
The vinyls demand growth during the last decade in the Middle East region was the second highest after the Asia Pacific region. The demand was driven by large scale construction projects in Iran and Saudi Arabia, which are some of the largest exporting countries of crude oil and natural gas in the world, and the high oil prices of the past few years have immensely benefited their economies. These countries have undertaken large multi-billion dollar projects to develop the physical infrastructure and industrialization in their economies, driven by the need to invest the windfall revenues earned from high crude oil prices and also to generate jobs for local nationals. Demand from construction applications account for 85% of the region’s vinyls demand and the large construction projects will drive the demand for vinyls in this sector, and also the larger Middle East market. The growth of VCM and EDC capacities in Iran and Saudi Arabia will drive the Middle East vinyls market until 2020.
Global Markets Direct: Global Vinyls Market Analysis And Forecasts To 2020:
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Global Markets Direct: More market data and market reports:
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