Market Study: Indonesia to provide 10.97% of regional oil supply, 4.41% of demand

New Energy research report, "Indonesia Oil & Gas Report 2010Q1" from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
 
Dec. 11, 2009 - PRLog -- The latest Indonesia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 4.41% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 10.97% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached 25.67mn b/d in 2008. It should average 24.83mn b/d in 2009, then rise to around 28.51mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged 8.45mn b/d in 2008. It is set to increase to 8.75mn b/d by 2013. In 2001 the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 17.22mn b/d in 2008, and is forecast to reach 19.76mn b/d by 2013. In terms of natural gas, in 2008 the region consumed 459bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 562bcm is targeted for 2013. Production of 356bcm in 2008 should reach 488bcm in 2013, but implies net imports easing from an estimated 102bcm per annum in 2008 to 74bcm in 2013. This is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Indonesia's share of gas consumption in 2008 was 8.29%, while its share of production is put at 19.56%. By 2013 its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.87%, with the country accounting for 17.82% of supply. For 2009 as a whole, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast we have stuck with during the past three quarters. Our OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals and Dubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price (up from our previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Our post-2010 forecasts are unchanged and we are continuing to use a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018. In 2009, BMI is now assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The fullyear outturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level for 2009 is forecast to be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the previous year's level. Indonesian real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 3.6% for 2009, down from 6.1% in 2008. We foresee 4.5% growth in 2010, 4.9% in 2011, followed by 5.1% in 2012/13. Efforts are being made by the Indonesian authorities to encourage investment in new oil and gas supply, in order to stem the decline in production. Numerous international oil companies (IOCs) work in partnership with national oil company Pertamina and the state. We are estimating oil and gas liquids production of no more than 985,000b/d by 2013, although the country is expected to pump 995,000b/d in 2009. Consumption is forecast to increase by 2.0-2.5% per annum to 2013. Our estimates imply demand of 1.26mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 296,000b/d by 2013. Gas production rising to an estimated 87bcm by 2013 should provide end-period export potential of 42.8bcm, with supply risk on the downside. Between 2008 and 2018 we are forecasting a reduction in Indonesian oil production of 19.3%, with crude volumes falling steadily to 810,000b/d in 2018. Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to increase by 14.0%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 1.39mn b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise from around 70bcm in 2008 to a peak of 89bcm by 2012, before slipping back to 85bcm by 2018. With demand growth of 32.4%, this provides an export capability peaking at 46.0bcm in 2012, before falling to 34.7bcm by 2018, largely in the form of LNG. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found later in this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections. Indonesia still ranks ninth in BMI's updated Upstream Business Environment rating, with a relatively strong resource position offset by poor output growth prospects, a deteriorating reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) and extensive state involvement. The country sits comfortably ahead of Japan and just behind Thailand, with little risk from any of the countries below. The country also ranks ninth in BMI's updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its low level of retail site intensity, refinery capacity expansion plans and reasonable oil and gas demand growth outlook. It is just ahead of Thailand, Malaysia and Pakistan.
         


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