The Q309 BMI Indonesia Retail report predicts that the country's retail sales will grow from an estimated US$39.4bn in 2008 to almost US$87.0bn by 2013. Strong underlying economic growth, an enormous and expanding population (the world's fourth largest after China, India and the United States), the rise in per capita incomes and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast substantial growth in Indonesia's retail sales. Indonesia's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) was US$489.7bn in 2008. Average annual GDP growth of 4.9% is predicted by BMI to 2013. With the population increasing from 234.5mn in 2008 to an estimated 248.1mn by 2013, GDP per capita is predicted to more than double by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$3,835. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$1,195 in 2008 to US$2,002 by 2013. Employees in the formal sector have seen their salaries rise by 20% since 1999, according to the Indonesian government, with the average wage now standing at IDR2,412,000 (US$219) per month. These higher-income earners currently make up around 30% of the total workforce. The growth in the overall retail market will be driven, in large part, by the expansion of the organised retail market. BMI predicts that sales through these more modern and sophisticated outlets, which in 2007 accounted for an estimated 18.1% of the market, will rise from approximately US$6.4bn to US$17.0bn by 2013. This 166% increase (approximately 18% per annum) could see organised retail sales take almost 20% of the overall market by 2013. The mass grocery retail (MGR) sector, which is still developing in Indonesia, will see substantial growth, with BMI forecasting sales to more than double to US$9.4bn in 2013. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2008 were an estimated US$2,044bn. China and India alone in 2008 accounted for almost 93% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to reach 94% by 2013. Growth in regional retail sales for the period 2008 to 2013 is put by BMI at 105%, or an annual average 17.6%. China should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by Indonesia and India. For Indonesia, the estimated 2008 market share of 1.9% is expected to rise slightly to 2.1% by 2013.
Partial Table of Contents:
-- Full ToC is available at http://www.fastmr.com/
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Indonesia Retail Business Environment SWOT
Indonesia Political SWOT
Indonesia Economic SWOT
Indonesia Business Environment SWOT
Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Business Environment
Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings
Indonesia’
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Industry Forecast Scenario
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2009e
Organised Retail
Table: The Role Of Organised Retail, 2007-2014
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Indonesia Economic Activity, 2004-2013
Regional Retail Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Trends, 2007-2014
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2007-2014 (% share)
Regional Retail Trends
Mass Grocery Retail
Indonesia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Indonesia’s MGR Sector By Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2005-2007
Table: Structure Of Indonesia’s MGR Sector - Sales By Format (US$mn), 2005-2007
Table: Average Annual Sales By Format, 2007 (US$mn)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Indonesia Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (US$bn), 2005-2013
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format, 2007 And 2017 (%)
Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
Indonesia Consumer Electronics SWOT
Indonesia Electronics Industry SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2006-2013
Industry Latest Developments
Automotives
Indonesia Autos SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Indonesia’s Autos Production And Sales, 2006-2013
Table: Indonesia’s Automotive Trade, 2006-2013
Table: Economic Contribution Of Indonesia Automotive Market, 2006-2013
Country Snapshot: Indonesia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2000-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 (IDR)
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