New Research Report: Swine Flu impacts Mexican Freight Transport industry

Dec. 4, 2009 - PRLog -- The outbreak of swine flu in Mexico in late April posed a major threat to the aviation industry and to Mexico's wider transport sector. By the end of the month over 150 people were confirmed to have died of the illness in Mexico, and a wide range of countries issued travel advisories telling their citizens to avoid traveling to the country. In a first indication of the scale of the reaction, news media said commercial flights to Mexico were running two-thirds or more empty, while flights out of the country remained full. A number of charter operators from North America and Europe said they had cancelled flights. US scheduled operators such as  Continental Airlines,  American Airlines,  United Airlines,  Delta Air and  US Airways said they would allow passengers to change flight reservations without penalties if flying to Mexico. Tour companies noted that even before the outbreak, demand for holiday travel to Mexico had been suffering because of reports of violence and drug wars in the country. Airport operator  Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, which operates Cancún and other regional airports, said there had been a sharp decline in passenger traffic. US-based analyst Gary Chase of  Barclays noted that the sharp drop in travel to Mexico would expose a number of US-based airlines to losses. The most exposed, simply because of the high proportion of Mexico travel in their normal routes, he said, were  Alaska Airlines, Continental Airlines, US Airways, and American Airlines.  BMI's newly released  Mexico Freight Transport Report notes that ahead of assessing the real impact of swine flu, Mexico's overall freight traffic projections were already being affected by the downturn in the US and global economies. Looking at freight carried across all transport modes, and measured in million tonne-km (mntkm) we are forecasting average annual growth of 2.1% in 2009-2013, a sharp reduction on the 4.0% rate achieved in the preceding five years (2004-2008). By transport mode, we predict the best performers will be rail and air (despite the impact of swine flue) at 2.6% each. They will be followed by road (2.0%), maritime freight (1.9%), pipeline throughput (1.7%) and inland waterways (1.6%).  BMI concludes that the value of the Mexican transport and communications sector will rise to US$167.6bn by 2013, representing 11.5% of the country's total GDP.  BMI rates Mexico's regulatory and competitive environments relatively highly in relation to other regional markets. In this report, in fact, we set the country's overall freight rating score at 45.1 (out of a maximum of 100). The transport and communications sector employed 1.89mn people, or 4.6% of the labour force, in 2008. We see that figure rising to 1.98mn by 2013, although as a proportion of the labour force it will remain constant at 4.6%.
         

Partial Table of Contents:
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Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
   Mexican Road Haulage Industry SWOT
   Mexico Political SWOT
   Mexico Economic SWOT
   Mexico Business Environment SWOT
   Business Environment Ratings
Table: Americas Freight Transport Business Environment Ratings
   Mexico Freight Transport Rating Overview
   Mexico Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
   Political Risk Summary
   Economic Risk Summary
   Business Environment Risk Summary
   Legal Code/Corruption
   Red Tape
   Labour Force
Table: Mexico’s Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
   Industry Trends And Developments
   Road
   Air
   Sea
   Pipelines
   Industry Forecast Scenario
   Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q108-Q409 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Prices, 2007-2014 (US$/bbl)
   Macroeconomic Overview
Table: Mexico - Economic Activity, 2006-2013
   Transport Outlook
Table: Freight Carried, Domestic And International, 2006-2014 (mn tonnes km, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Mexico’s Freight Transport Indicators, 2006-2014
   Trade Environment
Table: Value Of Imports By Category, 2006-2014 (US$mn)
Table: Value Of Exports By Category, 2006-2014 (US$mn)
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2002-2006 (US$mn)
Table: Export Trade, 2003-2006 (% growth y-o-y)
Table: Import Trade, 2003-2006 (% growth y-o-y)
Table: Top Import Sources, 2001-2006 (US$mn)
Table: Grupo TMM’s Key Financial Data
Table: Income Statement (MXNmn)
Table: Grupo México’s Financial Performance, 2007 And 2008
Table: Consorcio Aeroméxico’s Financial Performance, 2003, 2004 And 2008 (US$mn)
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012


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