The outbreak of swine flu in Mexico in late April posed a major threat to the aviation industry and to Mexico's wider transport sector. By the end of the month over 150 people were confirmed to have died of the illness in Mexico, and a wide range of countries issued travel advisories telling their citizens to avoid traveling to the country. In a first indication of the scale of the reaction, news media said commercial flights to Mexico were running two-thirds or more empty, while flights out of the country remained full. A number of charter operators from North America and Europe said they had cancelled flights. US scheduled operators such as Continental Airlines, American Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Air and US Airways said they would allow passengers to change flight reservations without penalties if flying to Mexico. Tour companies noted that even before the outbreak, demand for holiday travel to Mexico had been suffering because of reports of violence and drug wars in the country. Airport operator Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, which operates Cancún and other regional airports, said there had been a sharp decline in passenger traffic. US-based analyst Gary Chase of Barclays noted that the sharp drop in travel to Mexico would expose a number of US-based airlines to losses. The most exposed, simply because of the high proportion of Mexico travel in their normal routes, he said, were Alaska Airlines, Continental Airlines, US Airways, and American Airlines. BMI's newly released Mexico Freight Transport Report notes that ahead of assessing the real impact of swine flu, Mexico's overall freight traffic projections were already being affected by the downturn in the US and global economies. Looking at freight carried across all transport modes, and measured in million tonne-km (mntkm) we are forecasting average annual growth of 2.1% in 2009-2013, a sharp reduction on the 4.0% rate achieved in the preceding five years (2004-2008). By transport mode, we predict the best performers will be rail and air (despite the impact of swine flue) at 2.6% each. They will be followed by road (2.0%), maritime freight (1.9%), pipeline throughput (1.7%) and inland waterways (1.6%). BMI concludes that the value of the Mexican transport and communications sector will rise to US$167.6bn by 2013, representing 11.5% of the country's total GDP. BMI rates Mexico's regulatory and competitive environments relatively highly in relation to other regional markets. In this report, in fact, we set the country's overall freight rating score at 45.1 (out of a maximum of 100). The transport and communications sector employed 1.89mn people, or 4.6% of the labour force, in 2008. We see that figure rising to 1.98mn by 2013, although as a proportion of the labour force it will remain constant at 4.6%.
Partial Table of Contents:
-- Full ToC is available at http://www.fastmr.com/
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Mexican Road Haulage Industry SWOT
Mexico Political SWOT
Mexico Economic SWOT
Mexico Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Ratings
Table: Americas Freight Transport Business Environment Ratings
Mexico Freight Transport Rating Overview
Mexico Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
Political Risk Summary
Economic Risk Summary
Business Environment Risk Summary
Legal Code/Corruption
Red Tape
Labour Force
Table: Mexico’s Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Industry Trends And Developments
Road
Air
Sea
Pipelines
Industry Forecast Scenario
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q108-Q409 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Prices, 2007-2014 (US$/bbl)
Macroeconomic Overview
Table: Mexico - Economic Activity, 2006-2013
Transport Outlook
Table: Freight Carried, Domestic And International, 2006-2014 (mn tonnes km, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Mexico’s Freight Transport Indicators, 2006-2014
Trade Environment
Table: Value Of Imports By Category, 2006-2014 (US$mn)
Table: Value Of Exports By Category, 2006-2014 (US$mn)
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2002-2006 (US$mn)
Table: Export Trade, 2003-2006 (% growth y-o-y)
Table: Import Trade, 2003-2006 (% growth y-o-y)
Table: Top Import Sources, 2001-2006 (US$mn)
Table: Grupo TMM’s Key Financial Data
Table: Income Statement (MXNmn)
Table: Grupo México’s Financial Performance, 2007 And 2008
Table: Consorcio Aeroméxico’
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
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