BMI estimates that, by the end of 2008, the number of mobile customers in Vietnam had risen to over 75mn. Our estimates are based on latest data to be published by Vietnam's Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC), operators and local press reports. It is estimated that there were around 57mn subscribers in September 2008, and some 51.6mn in June 2008. Viettel, owned by the Vietnamese military, continued to lead the Vietnamese mobile market, with a market share of around 37.2%, a 0.6pps fall over the second half of 2008, according to information published by the operator. Figures for major rivals, the next largest mobile operators, MobiFone and VinaPhone, were reported at an estimated 22mn and 16mn, respectively. Collectively, together with smaller operators Vietnamobile (formerly HT Mobile), S-Phone and E Mobile, 39.515mn net additions were made to the market. Strong growth during 2008, despite the global recession, came as a direct result of a reduction in mobile tariffs and the competitive pricing of tariffs. Furthermore, it came about despite the increase in mobile handset prices and re-registration of prepaid SIM cardholders. Growth into 2009 is not expected to be as robust, largely due to the economic recession taking its toll, although GDP growth will register an increase of 3%, which remains lower than the 5-6% enjoyed just a few years earlier. That said, the introduction of a seventh operator, GTel, to the market in early 2009, alongside the relaunch of Vietnamobile, which will offer GSM (rather than CDMA) services should provide for greater competition in the mobile sector. BMI has revised its forecasts for the year to reach a little over 75mn subscribers in 2009, and a penetration rate of 115%, before rising to meet our end of period forecast in 2013, with a rate of 179%. The still-rising number of mobile subscribers in Vietnam, accounting for 85% of the total population, is demonstrative of the high demand for mobile services in the country. In our newly introduced mobile content section, we take a look at the issues facing the sector. Of note, has been the rise in unwanted SMS messages, used to target customers by content providers and customers for advertising their services. In view of this new section, we have retained our existing fixed-line and internet market data analysis sections.
Partial Table of Contents:
-- Full ToC is available at http://www.fastmr.com/
Executive Summary
SWOTs
Vietnam Mobile SWOT
Vietnam Wireline SWOT
Vietnam Political SWOT
Vietnam Economics SWOT
Vietnam Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment
Vietnam
Table: Asia Telecoms Business Environment Rankings
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts
ARPU
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile ARPU - Historical Data & Forecasts (US$)
Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed-Line - Historical Data & Forecasts
Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: Vietnam Mobile Market, August 2009
3G
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Table: Asia VAS Market By Service (US$bn)
Country Outlook
Value-
Table: Selected VAS Services
Fixed Line
Long-Distance Services
Fixed Wireless
Internet
Broadband
IPTV
Corporate Data Services
WiMAX
Table: Vietnam - WiMAX Triallists
Wireline Contract Wins
Table: Wireline Contract Wins
Regulatory Environment
Vietnam:
Legislation And Market Liberalisation
Regulation
Licensing And Spectrum
Regulatory Developments
Competitive Landscape
Competitor Analysis
Table: Key Players - Vietnam Telecoms Sector
Company Monitor
Alcatel-
Table: Alcatel-Lucent Revenues By Service Type (Eurmn)
Wireline Out, IP In
Table: Alcatel-Lucent Revenues By Region (Eurmn)
The WiMAX Vs LTE Debate
Table: Alcatel-Lucent:
Selected Profiles - Operators
Appendix
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
BMI Telecoms Industry Glossary
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