In BMI's China Agribusiness Report for Q3 2009 we introduce the new Soybean Outlook. In it we discuss how China's rapidly developing soybean sector has been coping with the turbulence in the world market for the commodity over the past year. The growth in China's soybean consumption over the past year has been meteoric. In the decade up to 2008, consumption more than tripled and China moved from being pretty much self-sufficient to being the world's biggest importer by far. This has been driven by the development of the country's livestock sector. With meat consumption expected to grow strongly beyond the current economic problems, demand for soybean will climb ever higher. As for many other commodities, 2008 was a roller-coaster year for soybean prices. The rapid rise in prices starting in late 2007 and continuing until mid-2008 caused the government to worry about the impact on the domestic livestock sector and cut import duty by two percentage points to 1%. China's soybean farmers meanwhile expanded the area planted in the hope of reaping the benefits of the high prices. By the time harvesting season came around, however, prices had plummeted. Government intervention with a programme to purchase 5mn tonnes of soybean at around 15% above the market price pleased nobody. Farmers griped about difficulties accessing the scheme, while processors complained that the higher prices were impacting their competitiveness. The rapid rise in demand has led to some major changes in China's soybean sector. Crushing plants have sprung up around port cities to meet incoming shipments. Foreign involvement in the sector is also high. The combination of rapidly rising imports and high foreign ownership in the soybean processing sector has unsurprisingly sparked concerns about the impact on food security. However, with China's everwealthier consumers hungering for more meat, it seems there is little the government can do to stem the flow without seriously damaging the country's livestock sector. We therefore see continued strong growth in soybean consumption throughout our forecast period to 2013. Away from soybean, the expected slowdown in Chinese economic growth - BMI is now forecasting growth in 2009 of 5.6% year-on-year, down from 9.0% in 2008 and 12.0% in 2007 - will see some changes in demand patterns for agricultural goods. We expect demand for the staple rice to pick up as consumers cut down on more expensive foods.
Partial Table of Contents:
-- Full ToC is available at http://www.fastmr.com/
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
China Agricultural SWOT
China Political SWOT
China Economic SWOT
China Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
China Livestock Outlook
Table: China Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
China Rice Outlook
Table: China Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Rice Production, Consumption & Trade
China Grains Outlook
Table: China Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
China Sugar Outlook
Table: China Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
China Dairy Outlook
Table: China Milk Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Milk Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade
China Soybean Outlook
Table: China Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
Table: China Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
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