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This report will support investment decisions in the crude oil industry with detailed information on the crude oil demand-supply scenario, analysis of key issues and challenges in the oil industry across the complete value chain including the impact of the financial crisis on the sector, analysis of major markets across the different regions and competitive scenario across all of the different sectors of the crude oil industry. The report also details the major upcoming projects, future trends and opportunities in the overall crude oil market.
The National Oil Companies Are Playing an Increasingly Important Role in the Global Crude Oil Industry
The National Oil Companies (NOCs) dominate the crude oil industry in the Exploration and Production (E&P) sector. Out of the top 10 E&P companies in terms of production in 2008, seven were NOCs. The NOCs have an even stronger hold over the overall crude oil reserves. Of the top 10 companies in the world in terms of crude oil reserves in 2008, nine were NOCs.
The NOCs are also trying to increase their presence across the value chain. In the refining sector, as of 2008, two out of the top 5 refining companies were NOC’s , with China’s Sinopec climbing up to the position of second largest refiner in the world replacing the world major Royal Dutch Shell. It is expected that by 2015, 6 of the top 10 refiners in the world will be NOCs. Among the NOCs, the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company and Saudi Aramco are expected to increase their capacities at a rapid pace.
In the crude oil storage industry, larger investments are expected to come from national oil companies during 2008-15, especially the Chinese national oil companies. However in the crude oil pipeline industry, private players will continue to dominate the overall industry.
The Crude Oil Industry Has Been Hit by the Global Economic Slowdown but Will Revive By 2010
The global crude oil industry has been hit by the global economic slowdown. The slowing demand, low crude oil prices and tight credit market have posed serious challenges to the industry. The low global demand and unavailability of credit have led to the delay of many major projects across the crude oil value chain. The worst hit has been the Canadian oil sands industry. With the falling of crude oil prices to as low as $35 a barrel, the oil sands projects were rendered uneconomical. The situation caused the suspension of many major oil sands projects. Globally approximately 69 major E&P projects were either delayed, suspended or cancelled alltogether of which 23 projects were Canadian oil sands projects. However with the crude oil prices reviving the situation is expected to ease.
In addition to this, the current crisis has also forced almost all major international oil companies to cut down on their capital expenditure (CAPEX). As a result of the current economic slowdown, the majority of companies are formulating their capital budgets more realistically in line with their internal cash flows. For example, Canadian Natural Resources has reduced its Capex from $6.4 billion in 2008 to $2.7 billion in 2009, reduced by approximately 57.8%. BP reduced its Capex from $22 billion in 2008 to $19 billion in 2009, a reduction of 13.6%
Latin American Countries Will Play a Vital Role in Meeting the World Crude Oil Demand
With huge heavy oil reserves in Venezuela and huge oil and gas discoveries in Brazil, the Latin American countries are expected to play a major role in supplying the crude oil needs of the world in future years. The region has been one of the active areas in terms of new oil and gas discoveries which make it one of the most prospective regions for the future.
The Latin American countries led the other regions in terms of significant discoveries in 2008. The region witnessed six major oil and gas discoveries last year with five major discoveries in Brazil and one in Peru. With major discoveries in 2008 and huge resources, the region is expected to be one of the major sought after locations for future investments.
Crude Oil Storage capacity in China Will Increase by Approximately Four Times By 2015
In order to secure its ever increasing energy demand and maintain energy security China is heavily investing in increasing its overall crude oil storage capacity. The country aims to build storage capacity that can meet 90 to 100 days crude oil demand of China.
As a result of China’s ambitious plans, two of its major national oil companies namely China National Petroleum Corporation and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation will become major players in the world crude oil storage by 2015. China National Petroleum Corporation will move to the position of second largest crude oil storage company in the world, in terms of crude oil storage capacity
Asia Pacific and Middle-East and Africa Regions Will Witness Strong Growth in Refining Capacity
The Asia Pacific and Middle East and Africa regions will drive the growth of refining capacity during 2008-15. The overall crude oil refining capacity of Asia Pacific is expected to increase at an average annual growth rate of 3.1% during 2008-15. The refining capacity of Middle East and Africa region is expected to increase at a rate of 8.09% annually.
There are 33 new planned refineries in the Middle East and Africa region and 22 new refinery projects in Asia Pacific. The two regions together will add approximately 450 million tonnes of refining capacity to global refining capacity which will account for approximately 80% of the new planned refinery capacity added during 2008-15.
The Global Crude Oil Consumption Will Continue to Increase Driven by Demand in BRIC Nations
The steady growth in crude oil consumption in Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) will continue to drive the growth in the crude oil markets. The crude oil consumption in the BRIC countries increased at an AAGR of 4.0% during 2000-08 and is expected to further increase at an AAGR of 2.7% during 2008-15. All the BRIC nations will witness a strong growth in their oil consumption mainly as a result of expected economic growths in the countries.
During 2008, the BRIC countries accounted for 19% of the total oil consumption. The percentage share of the BRIC nations increased from 15% in 2000 to 19% in 2008. The share of the BRIC nations in the world oil consumption is expected to increase to 21.5% by 2015.
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