Despite being the only market in Western Europe to still be below 100% penetration France saw a real slowdown in growth in 2008 even with the on trend boost in the final quarter of the year. While the end of year figure, 57.2mn, was not much different from our forecasts the slowing growth in France was enough to knock it from the top spot in our Business Environment Rankings. Coupled with a lower country risk score the decrease in France's telecoms market score saw it fall to second place to be replaced by the UK. Across the whole of Western Europe Country Risk scores dropped as the credit crunch has spread and many economies face recession in 2009. For France this has led to high unemployment and widespread discontent, with President Sarkozy finding support for his reforms to modernise France waning. Nonetheless France remains a leading telecoms market in Western Europe backed by a strong regulator in the form of Arcep. The ongoing furore over the additional 3G spectrum was finally resolved in January 2009 with Arcep deciding to split the licence into three tranches of 5MHz each with one section reserved for a new operator. Iliad, the only bidder last time the spectrum was up for auction, has indicated it is still interested and has ambitious spending plans. However, BMI foresees difficulties with the remaining two blocks of spectrum which will leave out one of the three major operators; Orange, SFR and Bouygues Telecom.
BMI has provided company profiles for the two smaller operators to give a greater overview of the total mobile market and its players. With 3G growth remaining strong despite the overall slowdown in the market we believe there will be considerable interest in acquiring additional spectrum. As the interest in 3G services grows BMI has expanded its coverage of mobile content services which are key to driving up 3G usage. Although operators give some indication of 3G subscriptions on their networks these are, for the most part, citing the numbers of subscribers with 3G-enabled handsets with many not actually regular users of the services on offer. Operators have expanded their mobile broadband service offerings with prepay USB modems on the market for as little as EUR9. In light of our expanded coverage we have left fixed-line and broadband data analysis and forecasts untouched this quarter and will provide a full update in our next report. Among the upcoming hot topics will be the rising level of discussion regarding functional separation at France Telecom, a source of contention for many of Western Europe's incumbent operators. Alternative operators have accused these incumbents, such as France Telecom, of continuing to dominate the market and have called for their networks to be placed under separate management treating all operators that wish to have access on an equal basis.
Partial Table of Contents:
-- Full ToC is available at http://www.fastmr.com/
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
France Mobile Business Environment SWOT
France Wireline Business Environment SWOT
France Political SWOT
France Economic SWOT
Business Environment Analysis
Western Europe
France
Table: Western Europe Business Environment Rankings
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: France Telecom Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2013
Fixed Line
Table: France Telecom Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2013
Internet
Table: France Telecom Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2013
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: France Mobile Market, Q209
Table: France Mobile Market Net Additions, Q408-Q209
Subscriber Mix
Table: French Mobile Network Operator Subscriber Mix, Q209
ARPU
Table: French Mobile Market Blended ARPU, Q208-Q408
3G
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: France Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Content
Regional Overview
SMS Revenues Under Pressure
Table: Data Revenues Failing To Reflect Increased Data Usage
Table: 3G And 3G Dongle Customers Soaring
Country Focus
Orange Broadband Subscribers
VAS Timeline
Table: VAS Timeline
Mobile Data
Table: France Mobile Market Overview
Table: Orange
Table: SFR
Table: Bouygues Telecom
Table: MVNO
Fixed Line
Table: French Fixed-Line Market, Q108-Q109
Table: French Fixed-Line Market, 2003-2007
Table: France Télécom Subscriber Base (mn)
ARPU
Local Loop Unbundling
Functional Separation
Internet
Table: French Internet Market, Q108-Q109
Table: France Télécom Internet Subscribers (‘000)
The Broadband ‘Box’
ARPU
Broadband Technologies
DSL
WiMAX
Fibre-
Table: France Télécom FTTH
Table: Wireline Developments
Regulatory Environment
Table: Division Of Regulatory Responsibilities In France
Background And Regulatory Bodies
Competition
Regulatory Developments
Competitive Landscape
Market Overview
Table: Key Players - France Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2005-2008
Company Monitor
Table: Nokia Financial Highlights (EURmn)
Nokia's Position In The Global Handset Market, Unit Sales (mn)
Nokia's Position In the Global Handset Market, Unit Sales (mn)
Nokia Siemens Networks Net Sales By Geographic Area (EURmn)
Table: Nokia Siemens Networks Recent Contract Wins In Western Europe
Operator Profiles
Appendix
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Country Snapshot: France Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2000-2005
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Telecoms Industry Glossary
Table: Telecommunications Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
Business Environment Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Weighting
Weighting
Indicators
Indicators
BMI Forecast Modelling & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Telecommunications Industry Forecasting:
Key Indicators
Business Environment Ratings
Sources
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