Market Report: Iran to account for 16.3% of Middle East and Africa regional power generation by 2013

PRLog (Press Release) - Nov 27, 2009 -
The new Iran Power Report from  BMI forecasts that the country will account for 16.3% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2013.  BMI's MEA power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,178 terawatt hours (twh), representing an increase of 5.5% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,523twh by 2013, representing a rise of 29.3% between 2008 and the end of the period. Thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated by  BMI at 1,100twh, accounting for 93.4% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,414twh, implying 35.7% growth that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 92.8% - thanks in part to environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Iran's thermal generation in 2008 was an estimated 183twh, or 16.6% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 15.6% of regional thermal generation. For Iran, gas was the dominant fuel in 2007, accounting for 55% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 42% and hydro with a 2% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 853mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 19.6% growth over the period since 2008. Iran's estimated 2008 market share of 26.9% is set to ease to 26.2% by 2013. Iran's nuclear demand is forecast to reach 8twh by 2013, with its share of the MEA nuclear market rising to 32.0%.

Iran is now ranked sixth in  BMI's updated Power Business Environment rating. This reflects its market size and high proportion of renewables (hydropower) use. The power sector isn't competitive, with no appreciable progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment is unattractive. If South Africa can sort out its current power supply problems and make some progress towards privatisation, then it may be able to pull further away from Iran during the next few quarters.  BMI is forecasting real GDP growth averaging 3.8% per annum between 2008-2013, with the 2009 estimate being 2.4%. The population is expected to expand from 72.2mn to 77.2mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 38% and 9%, respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 182twh in 2008 to 212twh by the end of the forecast period, providing export potential rising from an estimated 21twh in 2008 to 36twh in 2013, assuming 4.2% annual growth in electricity generation. Losses during power transmission and distribution mean that the actual level of Iranian power exports is well below the theoretical surplus, but is set to rise. Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Iranian electricity generation of 54.1%, which is near the middle of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 20.2% in the 2013-2018 period, down from 22.1% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to increase from 16.4% in 2008-2013 to 17.9%, representing 44.1% for the entire forecast period. The availability of nuclear power from 2009 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 53.3% between 2007 and 2018. More details of the longer-term  BMI power forecasts can be found in the  Appendix of this report.
         


For more information or to purchase this report, go to http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=39490

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.

BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including Daily Alerts, monthly regional Insights, and in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.