This is the first edition in BMI's new series of reports on real-estate sectors around the world. We have sought to incorporate data and insights from our reports on infrastructure and commercial banking, as well as our own forecasts for the economies of the various countries that we survey. Key issues - USA We suggest that the following are the key issues to monitor for the real estate sector in the coming year or so: Any growth in construction spending - whether as a result of the government's fiscal stimulus package or not. For all the past problems of the economy, the absolute level of activity remains enormous. A pick-up in the volume of house sales in the majority of markets - given that this would indicate that prices have fallen to market-clearing levels. Any improvement in conditions in the markets for non-government bonds, given that these are (and over the long term will likely continue to be) the main source of funding for the real estate sector. Premiums and discounts to Net Asset Values (NAVs) on Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - which will give an indication of investor sentiment towards the real estate sector or, more precisely, the various sub-sectors. These conclusions are based on our proprietary Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating (RECBER), the component factors of which we discuss in detail. The conclusions are also set against recent conditions in the commercial office market, for which we have used office rents in major cities as a proxy and in the residential real estate market, for which we have used housing prices as a proxy. A major trend throughout all our real estate reports is that, mainly owing to the global financial crisis, access to funding will be more important than in the not too distant past. Accordingly, we have incorporated overviews of conditions in the commercial banking sector, both globally and in the region of each country. We have also looked at the issues that will drive the fortunes of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) over the coming months.
Report Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
Key Features Of This Report
SWOT Analysis
United States Real Estate/Construction SWOT
United States Economic SWOT
United States Business Environment SWOT
Real Estate Market Overview
Economic Conditions
Finance
Construction Spending And Activity
Housing
Commercial
Key Projects
Construction Overview
New And Ongoing Projects
Residential Construction
Commercial Construction
Industrial Construction
Tourism Construction
Table: Major Construction Projects
Real Estate Investment Trusts
Table: FTSE EPRA/NREIT Global Real Estate Index, Total Returns (US Dollar Terms)
Table: US REITs, Total Returns (US Dollar Terms)
Industry Finance Outlook
Global Outlook
Table: Loan Growth, 2006-2013 (% Change y-o-y)
Table: Loan-To-Deposit Ratios, 2006-2013
US Monetary Policy
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: US Housing Prices At A Glance (national price index)
Table: Office Rents In North America, CBRE
Table: Office Rents In The United States, Other Sources
US Construction Industry Forecasts
Table: US Construction Data And Forecasts, 2008-2013
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: United States - Economic Activity, 2006-2013
Business Environment
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Ratings
Table: Latin America Business Environment Ratings
US RECBER
Americas Project Finance Ratings
Table: Design And Construction Rating
Table: Commissioning And Operating Rating
Table: Overall Project Finance Rating
US Business Environment
Table: BMI Business And Operational Risk Ratings
Table: BMI Legal Framework Ratings
Table: FDI To Developed States, 2006 And 2007
Table: BMI Trade Ratings
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2000-2007 (US$mn)
Company Monitor
Bechtel
KBR
Fluor Corporation
Turner Construction Company
Centex Homes & Pulte Homes (Recent Merger)
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Bank Lending
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Project Finance Ratings Indicators
Table: Design And Construction Phase
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Commercial Construction
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Energy And Utilities
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Transport
Sources
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