At 1000 am EST, 1500 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located about 255 miles southeast of Cozumel Mexico and about 270 miles south of the western tip of Cuba.
Ida is moving toward the north near 9 mph. A turn toward the north-northwest with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Ida is forecast to move over or just east of the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Ida is expected to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday night.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and Ida could approach hurricane strength on Sunday. Some weakening is expected after Ida enters the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.
Long Range Forecast:
As Ida has survived her encounter with Honduras and Nicaragua, she will now continue to track northward towards the Gulf of Mexico for the next 48 hours while slowly intensifying and could cross the hurricane threshold as she nears the Yucatán Peninsula.
For days 3 to 5, Ida will enter the Gulf where the environment will not be conducive to further strengthening;
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Threats & Damages:
The main threat from Ida is life-threatening widespread flash flooding and mudslides as Ida is expected to produce heavy rains beginning later today and extending into Sunday and Monday for western Cuba and the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico. Total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are also possible across the Cayman Islands.
Expect the infrastructure of water, power, sewer, roads and communications to be disrupted. Minor to moderate damage to poorly constructed buildings. Travel in western Cuba and the Yucatán will be hampered due blocked roads. Expect air travel delays or even cancellations on Sunday for the Yucatán.
Watches & Warnings:
At 10 am EST, 1500 UTC, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Yucatán Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Grand Cayman Island.
At 10 am EST,1500 UTC, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatán Peninsula from Punta Allen northward to San Felipe. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area... Generally within 24 hours.
At 10 am EST, 1500 UTC, the government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the province of Pinar del Rio. The government of Cuba has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Isle of Youth.
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Matthew Swinden
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