So said development economist Anton Cartwright at the recent Climate Justice Conference organised by Project 90x2030 at the Goedgedacht farm outside Malmesbury.
Research conducted by the cities of Cape Town and Durban indicates that the consequences of rising sea levels are far greater and more far-reaching than was previously believed, and predicts huge knock-on effects and cost.
A prior assessment done by the International Panel for Climate Change(IPCC)
As the coast is deemed one of the country's greatest assets, it hasseen rapid development and this has exacerbated its vulnerability.
While wealthy South Africans, who occupy most coastal property, haveand will continue to experience the bulk of the direct risks of risingsea levels (such as storm surges that degrade natural buffer areas), there are numerous secondary or indirect risks that threaten the greater population.
Cartwright listed potential scenarios such as disruptions in goods andservice delivery, high insurance premiums, strains on disaster reliefand governance, and psycho-emotional ill-health.
Direct risks include physical tidal force resulting in loss of life,infrastructure, heritage and real estate, during periods of extremehigh-
A rise in sea level of 2,5 metres, which has a projected likelihood of95% by 2100, has a threat value of R5,2bn attached to it.
He said it was now acknowledged that "even small increases inthe sea-level profoundly truncate the return times of extreme stormsurges, and that climate change itself may be making these storms moreintense and frequent".
The better news was that South Africa is in line with the global mean,which meant global research is applicable to the country and made"planning a bit easier".
Cartwright said that as it stood, decision makers were unsure about whichof the range of possible interventions to implement and how to "makedifficult trade-offs in the context of sea level rise uncertainty"
He said the most effective form of sea level rise reduction involved the enforcement and protection of a coastal buffer zone, as proposedin the Integrated Coastal Management Bill (2007). – Caitlin Ross, West Cape News
Source: Property 24
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