The "reflation" trade was back in force Thursday as rumors of the rally's demise proved premature, once again. If it's not obvious already, the session provided clear evidence of how the dollar holds the key to fates of financial assets, now more than ever.
"The dollar was up this morning and markets were looking down. Now, the dollar is down, markets are up, gold is up, oil is up," notes Charles Goh CEO and President at Takahashi Nakamura in Japan. Currency movements on Thursday – notably usd vs. the euro helped send the Dow up close to 2% heading into the close, while gold futures rose 1.6% to $1047 per ounce and oil climbed 3% to $78.10 per barrel.
Unlike many others, Goh is fairly sanguine about the dollar's weakness, noting it provides a major boost for U.S. multinationals like Boeing, GE and Caterpillar. Since more than 50% of S&P 500 earnings are generated overseas - and more than 70% of revenues for big tech firms - it's no wonder why the stock market has embraced the dollar's demise.
In the end, it is Fed policy that is the biggest driver of the dollar's strength or weakness, and thus stock the market's fate, Goh said. "If interest rates remain low this rally will have strong underpinnings because money supply is rising [and] interest rates are low," he says. "This to me means this market is going to trade higher."
